After the bushfires, how much longer can Australia dither over climate change?

After a tragic summer of fires across Australia, the climate change fight is moving from the burnt-out bush to the corridors of power. Once a unified government of deniers, the conservative Liberal-National coalition is clashing over an appropriate policy response.

At its first party room meeting of the year earlier this week, former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce, who believes the coalition should do more to support coal-fired power, warned colleagues about “reactionary” policies, and chastised those using the crisis to push their climate change “hobby horse”.

Contrarily, Liberal MP Katie Allen, backed by several colleagues, called for the party to embrace renewable technology and the goal of carbon neutrality. In response, Nationals MP George Christensen pointed out that the government was only in power after winning crucial seats off Labor in north Queensland with its support for building Australia’s biggest ever coalmine. (On a side note, the constructors of the mine where given a criminal conviction for misleading the Queensland government over land clearing, on Thursday.)

After Christensen said the party sounded like the Greens, Nationals Senator Matt Canavan said: “We have become the party of workers, workers in coalmines, workers in shipyards and workers in factories.” His vision is not quite of the conservative party of old, but comes with new coal-fired power stations across Australia.

Providing a fresh example of the crippling attitudes towards climate change held by many within the government, Liberal Senator Jim Molan told Q&A on national broadcaster ABC on Monday that he wasn’t convinced that humans were responsible, and was “not relying on evidence” to decide.

“I accept the climate is changing,” Molan said. “It has changed and it will change. What it’s producing is hotter and drier weather and a hotter and drier country. As to whether it is human-induced climate change . . . my mind is open.”

Fellow panelist and scientist Michael Mann replied: “You should keep an open mind but not so open that your brain falls out. When it comes to this issue and human-caused climate change, it’s literally the consensus of the world’s scientists that it’s caused by human activity.”

Molan’s comments come as little surprise following last month’s Cabinet discussion of adjusting climate change policies, which found no support for any substantial change among the senior ministers.

Former coalition Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull was scathing of the party’s deniers, speaking at an event hosted by the Coalition for Conservation on Wednesday, stating they operate like “terrorists … basically they say, unless you give us what we want we will blow the joint up”.

Turnbull encouraged a shift to renewables, noting that large-scale solar was now cheaper than new black coal-fired power plants, and called on the government to use this summer’s tragedy as a turning point on climate change.

“If ever Australians were under any illusion that the consequences of a hotter and drier climate were not real, harsh and dangerous, those illusions have been shattered this summer. These bushfires are utterly without precedent in our history,” he said. “When they [the coalition] recognise a political cost in not addressing climate change in an effective way they will change. The calculus that has been made by many people in the coalition is that they can take many of their voters for granted.”

The government will be judged on its response to the crisis, and while they are facing inner turmoil the issue is uniting the people. A YouGov poll for the Australia Institute last month found 79 per cent of respondents were concerned about climate change, up five per cent since July. The majority felt the government has not done a good job of managing the climate crisis. Last week’s Essential poll found that 81 per cent of respondents supported boosting renewable energy.

Without question, Prime Minister Scott Morrison will struggle to balance public demand for action with his party’s general lack of desire. Speaking on broadcaster Channel Nine the morning after the party room climate change clash, Morrison said he would not “be bullied” into further action.

“We listen to Australians right across the country. Not just in the inner city,” he said dismissively. “We won’t be bullied into higher taxes or higher electricity prices. What we’ll do is take practical action that deals with these challenges.”

In Parliament that afternoon, the Prime Minister reinforced his previous position that dealing with the effects of climate change is a higher priority for the government than addressing the issue itself. “Hazard reduction is important, if not more important, than emissions reduction when it comes to protecting people from fire and hotter, drier, longer summers in the future,” he said.

By contrast, initial results from a study by forest scientists at the University of Melbourne this week found that hazard reduction burning had little to no effect in slowing this summer’s most severe fires across New South Wales. In fact, the majority of the areas that received hazard reduction burns over the past five years were burnt again by bushfires over the past three months.

It is not suggested that hazard reduction has no value. It helps save specific assets and also reduces the impact on the fringes of fires where the flames are less severe. However, it is wrong to say that hazard reduction may be more important than emissions reductions. Interestingly, in light of Morrison’s other comments, Professor Patrick Baker noted: “We don’t have endless resources to do this. It’s extraordinarily expensive, so if people want to double or triple or quadruple prescribed burning, the question is what else are we not going to get done?”

What will get done is a Royal Commission into the bushfire crisis, announced by the Prime Minister on Tuesday. The terms of reference have not yet been released, with concerns climate change may not be properly addressed. To that end, a group of 31 ex-fire and emergency chiefs have told Morrison that it would be a waste of money without including the role of climate change.

The coalition has so far successfully banked on climate change not being a sufficient issue to sway voters. After a summer that has claimed 33 lives, thousands of properties, over a billion animals, and close to 20 million hectares of land, that has changed. With likely two to three years until the next election, the government has time to change its priorities and to implement policies to address the crisis, but it must start now if it hopes to hold on to voter support.