Boris Johnson has lost the trust of voters and MPs. How can he regain it?
Boris Johnson 7 Jan 2020 (PA Images).
The essential currency that any leader must build and maintain is trust. The key components that contribute to it are captured in the “trust equation”, a tool utilised by business gurus, which strips it down to its core components. The numerator comprises three elements: credibility plus reliability plus intimacy, which should collectively be as high as possible. The sum of these is divided by self-orientation, the denominator, which should be as low as possible. The higher the overall score the greater the trust placed in the leader.
The Prime Minister’s current score appears to be in the doldrums. A MRP poll (multilevel regression and post-stratification) predicts that if an election were held now it would result in a hung Parliament, with the Tories’ “Red Wall” gains largely wiped out. It also indicates that Mr Johnson’s own Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat, which he held with a majority of over 7,000 in December 2019, would be at risk. He should therefore be minded to focus on rebuilding trust.
First, to gain credibility, he must eschew hyperbole in favour of realism. This is easier said than done for a former hack with a penchant for irrational exuberance and a witty turn of phrase. Talk of a “world-beating” test and trace system which has proved to be anything but, or the claim made in March last year, that we could send coronavirus “packing” within 12 weeks, when 10 months on we are facing the most acute period of the crisis to date, are just two examples. In the midst of a pandemic, the public prefer hard-headed honesty to grandiose claims. They also appreciate that the Government has a very difficult job to do in the face of rapidly changing circumstances.
But it is the unforced errors that are unforgivable. A lead of over 20 points a little over six months ago has evaporated, leaving the Conservatives marginally trailing Labour in the polls on 35 per cent. This, in part, reflects the fact that the Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer, is a much more effective opponent than his inept and bumbling predecessor. However, its greater cause is the seemingly perpetual ineptitude of the Government. The decision to impose the first lockdown later than other countries, dithering over the introduction of facemasks, the complete lack of restrictions or checks on visitors coming in from abroad that lasted for months, insufficient protection for those in care homes, and procurement mishaps are all cases in point. I could go on.
It is true that government communication has too often been confused and lacked clarity. The appointment of Allegra Stratton, a former broadcast journalist, as the Downing Street press secretary — an Americanism imported into our political system — is designed to address this.
However, that is only part of the problem. Reliability, the second ingredient, is also vital. It is perfectly acceptable for a government on occasion decide to change policy. But it should be done sparingly and at times, not at all. In response to vigorous opposition to her economic reforms, Margaret Thatcher made it clear at the Conservative Party conference in 1980 that the lady was “not for turning”. The current Government, by contrast, has U-turned with such regularity that one would be forgiven for thinking it is on a roundabout.
Last Sunday, the Prime Minister assured parents that children should go to primary school, only to announce a full lockdown 24 hours later. A number of heads had already decided not to open, predicting the inevitable volte-face. This reversal came only a couple of weeks after the Education Secretary commenced legal action against two councils that wished to close schools prior to Christmas.
Other self-inflicted debacles include the imposition of an NHS surcharge for migrant care workers which was then scrapped; the abandonment of an algorithm for moderating grades; and the eventual provision of free meals during school holidays — not once but twice — on the back of a dogged campaign by a premiership footballer.
Such incompetence and tardiness is lamentable. It has also fostered a reluctance among even the most obsequious Tory backbenchers to go into bat to defend the Government line, only to be stumped by their own side on the back of a sudden change of tack.
This malaise is compounded by a lack of intimacy, the third element in building trust, with multiple parties feeling marginalised and ignored. Regional leaders, such as Andy Burnham in Greater Manchester and Dan Jarvis in South Yorkshire, have protested about the lack of consultation over lockdown decisions and over punitive measures being imposed with insufficient monetary support to cushion the blow.
Then there are Tory MPs, many of whom, given the circumstances, have spent little time physically in Parliament in recent months, making the imposition of discipline by party whips challenging. This has been compounded by the sprouting of a number of caucuses within the party, notably the Covid Recovery Group, which has been sceptical about the imposition of continued restrictions due to the economic harm caused. Whilst there is no immediate threat to Boris Johnson’s position, mutterings are underway and two MPs from the 2019 intake have reportedly submitted letters of no confidence in the Prime Minister to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee.
The final component, self-orientation, should be low if the trust score is to be high. That is unlikely for a Prime Minister who has wanted to be “world king” since he was a child and is alleged to have once said that statues are not erected to journalists. He is right. It is a lot easier to pontificate without responsibility, as Mr Johnson has done with great aplomb throughout his career, than to lead a country with the unrelenting pressure and scrutiny it entails.
Once trust has been eroded it is extremely difficult to regain. Boris Johnson must hope that the industrial-scale vaccination programme now underway will be his path to doing so. In that, his own self-interest and that of the country are at least aligned.
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