How Jo Swinson chooses to play the next election could change everything
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The extraordinary events of the last 24 hours or so mean we are hurtling inexorably towards another General Election. The Lib Dems, polling well and in receipt of their latest defector from the Tories, Dr Phillip Lee MP, have plenty of reasons to be optimistic.
Obviously, any election in these circumstances is going to be totally dominated by Brexit. It therefore would make perfect sense for Jo Swinson’s party to play the Remain card as hard as possible. As Labour continue to dither, the Lib Dems cannot emphasise their undiluted pro-EU credentials enough, encouraging Remainers, especially those who may never have voted for them before, to back the party.
This tactic helped the Lib Dems regain some seats in 2017 and gave them a boost in the local and EU elections. It has won them defectors in the form of Chuka Umunna, Sarah Wollaston and now, Phillip Lee. On an issue over which the country is profoundly divided, the Lib Dems have picked their side. It is a side without any serious challenger, and a potential pool of over 16 million voters. The Lib Dems are experienced single-issue campaigners on a local level. They will undoubtedly deploy this message discipline at a national level during the forthcoming campaign.
Clearly within this strategy, centrist, Remain supporting Tories are crucial. My understanding is that the Lib Dems feel the cull that saw 21 MPs lose the whip on Tuesday night is to their benefit. As one Lib Dem source put it: “There are lots of ‘Ken Clarke Conservatives’ in the country who Boris has basically just said aren’t welcome in the party anymore.”
Shouting bollocks to Brexit is all well and good, but the Lib Dems now need to offer more. Being a single-issue party will only help the Lib Dems up to a point, and they must do more to be build a longstanding liberal coalition of voters. They need to explain their vision for the NHS and social care, for the modern economy, for all the things that effect peoples’ lives. And then, yes, they need to explain the damage Brexit does to all these things.
Because as well as the ‘Ken Clarke Tories’, there are a lot of Justine Greening Tories too. Social liberals who think their party should focus on social justice and improving the lot of the poorest in society in order to strengthen it. These liberal, centrist, One Nation Tories have every reason to feel as aggrieved at the purge currently going on in their party, just as moderate Labour members did when the Corbyn revolution arrived. They must be offered a sanctuary in the Lib Dems. They need being anti-Brexit to be part of a broader liberal vision, not an end in and of itself.
The delicate balancing act this all requires was already put under tremendous strain with Lee’s arrival in the party. It is fair to say that all aspects of voting record do not necessarily align with the values held many Lib Dem activists. Indeed, the Chair of the Lib Dems’s official LGBT+ organisation resigned her membership of the party in protest. In a blog announcing her resignation, Jennie Rigg wrote:
“I thought the Lib Dems were not a single-issue party. I thought we had a soul and principles. But apparently as long as you are on the right side on Brexit we’ll take you. Well, I’m sorry, but no.”
It is not inconceivable that the result of a General Election will see Swinson as head of the largest party, or at least a very important king-maker. During an election campaign, the Lib Dem leader must emphasise the contrast between her and opponents. She is young, energetic, and, likeable. Demonstrating this alongside Johnson’s bluster and Corbyn’s economic illiteracy (and, bluntly, his age) is critical. She also has experience in Government, which she must not shy away from. Alongside all that, as I said in a previous column, Swinson must not countenance helping Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell get into Downing Street.
There is no doubt that the Lib Dems are currently on the up. However, they learned after Clegg-mania that a fall from great heights hurts. A lot. An effective campaign in these extraordinary times may see them rise even further.
