Is this the end of the road for Netanyahu? Not necessarily
Amir Levy/Getty Images
It isn’t an accident that Binyamin Netanyahu is Israel’s longest-serving Prime Minister. Uncompromising, unscrupulous and unloved, he has nonetheless dominated politics in the Jewish state for more than a decade; he first led it in the 1990s. Twice this year he has sought a new mandate in elections; twice he has failed. Now 69, he is being written off by many commentators at home and abroad. Are they right?
On the face of it, things look bad for “Bibi”, as he is known by friends and enemies in Israel. Not only did his gamble of calling a second election only six months fail to produce a majority for his coalition of the Right; he now faces a potential indictment for bribery and corruption, with pretrial hearings due in a fortnight.
His main rival, General Benny Gantz, increased the vote for the centrist Blue and White Party, which has now overtaken Netanyahu’s Likud to become the largest in the Knesset. Given that Gantz is a novice and his party a novelty, this week’s result is a serious reverse for the Prime Minister. Jewish voters did not respond to his warnings against the Israeli-Arab Joint List, which increased its vote to become the third largest parliamentary group.
Bibi’s fate now lies in the hands of “Ruvi”, as President Reuven Rivlin is known. The head of state has the task of cobbling together a coalition that can command a stable majority. The kingmaker is likely to be Avigdor Lieberman, whose Yisrael Beitenu party represents the large Russian Jewish minority. With nine seats, the former defence minister hopes to broker a deal to create a secular government of national unity, excluding the ultra-Orthodox religious parties who have hitherto formed an essential part of any Likud-led coalition. Once allies and Cabinet colleagues, Lieberman and Netanyahu are now bitter enemies. It is hard to imagine them serving together in a government with Gantz.
On the other hand, Lieberman and Gantz, with 32, together have only some 41 seats, far short of a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Netanyahu’s Likud, plus its ally Yamina, have 38, while the religious have 17 seats, making a total of 55. The parliamentary arithmetic points towards a grand coalition. Gantz insists that he will not serve alongside Netanyahu as long as criminal charges are hanging over him. By the time the various parties have even begun serious coalition talks, however, it is likely that the court will have decided whether or not to indict Netanyahu. Assuming he is still in office by then, it would be the first time that a serving Prime Minister of Israel faced trial. He has sworn to fight his case even while leading the country, but few believe that Likud would let him.
So is this the end of the road for Bibi? Not necessarily. For all the obloquy heaped upon him, he has in many ways been Israel’s most successful leader since Menachem Begin, the founder of Likud, who made peace with Egypt. Under Netanyahu, the country has prospered and now enjoys good relations with most of its Arab neighbours. It is true that he has failed to pursue the so-called peace process, but most Israelis long ago gave up on the Palestinians. Netanyahu has hugged America close, especially under Donald Trump, who has recognised Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and the annexation of the Golan.
In the Sunni Arab world, Netanyahu’s warnings against Iran, which Europeans have tended to dismiss, are no longer seen as exaggerated. Last week’s devastating attack on the Saudi Arabian oil industry was tantamount to an act of war by the Islamic Republic — but so far the US has responded only with new sanctions. Where else can the Kingdom of Saud and the Gulf states turn for help? Israel has made itself a regional superpower. Its Iron Dome system has protected its people from Hamas and Hezbollah rockets. The Saudis and their allies would dearly love to be shielded in the same way. This is the opportunity the Israelis have been waiting for. They have fought a covert war of attrition against Iranian forces in Syria and Iraq, as well as slowing down their nuclear programme with cyber warfare and assassinations. They can offer practical help in deterring Iran.
With Israel and the Arabs aligned against Iran, Netanyahu can legitimately claim that he is the country’s only global statesman. Is this the moment for a new leader? General Gantz appeals to those who long for peace, but Netanyahu has the diplomatic experience and the trust of the military if it comes to war. Logic points to a grand coalition, but the job of Prime Minister is the great prize. Will Bibi’s ego allow him to share power? Only time can tell. The next few weeks will be some of the most nerve-wracking in Israel’s short history.
