Parliament has three extra weeks – how will it use them?

Today’s Supreme Court ruling was another major flashpoint in the ongoing Brexit saga. The court ruled that Boris Johnson’s prorogation of Parliament was not just unlawful, but “null and void.” In other words, prorogation is legally considered not to have happened, and Parliament will resume tomorrow without a new Queen’s Speech.

The attempted prorogation was due to last five weeks, ending on October 14. The court’s ruling effectively gives Parliament three extra weeks which it would not otherwise have had. But what will MPs do with this extra time? What can they do in three weeks that they haven’t done in the last year?

The Shadow Brexit Secretary Sir Keir Starmer indicated earlier that Parliament could seek to force the Government to publish the Attorney General’s legal advice on prorogation, using a humble address motion (the same device they previously used to force the Government to publish its legal advice on the Withdrawal Agreement). However, the legal advice has since been leaked anyway – and indicates that the Attorney General told the Cabinet that prorogation was lawful, contrary to the Supreme Court’s subsequent ruling. Nevertheless, MPs may still want to see the full, unredacted advice – and may also try to force the publication of other documents, such as further updates on the Government’s preparations for no-deal and progress in negotiating a deal with the EU.

It is also possible that MPs might seek to take control of parliamentary time again, and we now know that they have both the numbers and the procedures in place to achieve this. What’s less clear is what the purpose of this would be, given that the Benn Act is already in law. In theory, they could seek to address any loopholes in the Benn Act, but it is not clear that such loopholes exist – the Act is very tightly drafted.

A more radical option MPs have is to table a vote of no confidence. Previously, opposition parties had been keeping this weapon in reserve – perhaps with the intention of wielding it in the last ten days of October if Johnson failed to comply with the Benn Act (which requires him to seek an extension to Article 50 by October 19 if he is unable to reach a deal). With Parliament returning earlier, however, there is a possibility that this sequence of events might change. In theory, opposition parties could table a vote of no confidence before the Benn Act’s provisions kick in, safe in the knowledge that the Benn Act’s provisions would still be there if they failed to topple the Government. Rather than a vote of no confidence serving as a “backstop” in case the Prime Minister does not comply with the Benn Act, the Benn Act would serve as a “backstop” for a failure to both win a vote of no confidence and then form an alternative government in the fourteen day period that follows.

However, opposition sources have played down the prospect of an immediate vote of no confidence. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn confirmed in his speech today that the main priority of Labour is as it was before: “no election without extension.” In any case, it is not clear that the numbers are favourable to a vote of no confidence at this point in time. The pro-deal contingent within the anti-no deal alliance, particularly former Conservatives and independent MPs, may be reluctant to topple the Government while the prospect of a deal with the EU remains. For context, 24 MPs of the 328-strong anti-no deal alliance voted for the May deal at least once – which is enough to neutralise the opposition’s majority over the Government. As I’ve argued before, many of these MPs will not support a no confidence motion unless they think that it is the only way to stop no-deal.

If MPs are not prepared to back a vote of no confidence, it is not clear whether anything else they do in the extra three weeks will radically shift the dial on Brexit. Unless and until they vote for a deal or to revoke Article 50, no-deal will remain a possibility. And as things stand, they still won’t know whether the extension they want is in place until late October. The extra time means more scrutiny, more opportunities to embarrass the Government, and more political drama. But the next three weeks are unlikely to see a major shift on Brexit. The two fundamental questions – will the Government secure a deal and, if not, will they comply with the law – are likely to remain unanswered until mid-October.