Putin and Ukraine – this is going to hurt
The following was written just hours before the invasion of Ukraine began. It is published without amendment
I was the operations officer of an armoured infantry battle group in Cold War Germany when in 1983 we came perilously close to full scale war. As the military advisor to Sir Jeremy Greenstock, UK Permanent Representative to the UN, in New York I spent hours “in the room” — the public and private rooms of the United Nations Security Council — with Sergey Lavrov (now Russian foreign minister) in the run up to the war in Iraq.
Before and after that I held senior positions in the UK Delegation at NATO Headquarters during NATO’s first stages of enlargement, its first hot war over Kosovo, and spent too many tedious hours in NATO Council and Military Committee level NATO-Russia meetings.
Given so many pertinent memories, I cannot help myself from asking questions and risking some very early days assessments. Here is a first tranche of 5 Q&As.
How bad could this get?
All levels of ‘bad’ are possible, and plenty of experts are predicting that it will be really bad. This is already the worst European security crisis since the Second World War. People such as William Hague are saying that Putin will relish unleashing his recently upgraded war machine, that he will kill many thousands in a 21stcentury blitzkrieg campaign to cow neighbours and sow division amongst NATO nations. This is goodbye to a “Europe Whole and Free”. It will trigger a new Cold War with many consequences for Western economies and societies.
How far will Putin go, what is his game-plan?
Putin will go as far as necessary to protect himself, his ego and legacy, and his regime. He is determined to make Russia great again and in a way he is right when he claims that a Western Ukraine effectively holds a dagger to Russia’s throat. But this is not, as he claims, because NATO would threaten Russia from there, but because Ukraine on present track becoming a truly free and democratic independent state accelerates the risk of internal Russian instability and regime change.
Tsar Putin has cleverly exploited Western nations weaknesses and divisions. This “mafia boss with nukes” has been emboldened and has gone from Putin the Bold to Putin the Terrible. Standby for NATO escalation theory to be put to the test. He has just exercised his nuclear forces in Belarus to demonstrate that he will quickly escalate if necessary. It is an open question if after so long in power he is acting rationally. It is chilling to consider that, with recent constitutional changes, he is now de-facto President for life.
Will the West hold firm?
At moments of greatest risk, the West — and NATO in particular — will hold together. Putin has succeeded in reviving NATO. America is back and reinforcing Europe with troops, aircraft, and carrier battle group. Former Soviet and Eastern European states will cling tightly to NATO and the EU, and have zero inclination to be folded back into a Russian sphere of influence. The biggest test of resolve will likely be around economic impacts and consequences of sanctions and disrupted energy and trade flows. It was noteworthy that Chancellor Scholz told Putin that maintaining western unity was a higher priority than the German economy. Strategic initiatives of comparable scope to the Marshall Plan and Berlin Air Lift may prove necessary.
What are the immediate ‘known’ likely consequences?
NATO and partner nations (Sweden, Finland, Japan) will accelerate rearmament and security programmes that are already in train. Even more important will be the intellectual and strategic framework and underpinning of what William Hague is calling a “new age of hardened and permanent resolve”. At the operational level we will have to counter the full range of Russian grey zone activity including cyber attacks, misinformation, and internal destabilisation actions.
We will also have to face Russian counter actions to western sanctions and economic restrictions, as well as respond to Russian meddling across the world, including in the Balkans, Middle East and Africa. Tackling corruption and organised crime has just become even more important. The economic hit of all this, just after the pandemic, will be massive and potentially game-changing given the energy and trade disruptions, humanitarian and migration impacts, and significantly increased security budgets.
What are some top ‘unknown’ possible consequences?
Most western nations have been struggling with the pandemic — a further body blow to already-stressed political and economic models. This (perfectly timed by Putin) crisis may upend politics as we know it. In Germany there will surely be a reaction to the flawed policies of appeasement, close engagement with and energy dependence upon Russia. In the UK, this might give us a proper national government with Starmer in Attlee mode to a new PM (remember Chamberlain was replaced in wartime because it was the precondition of the Labour Party to the forming of the national coalition government)
Expect more — not less — state intervention in the economy, and an acceleration in the shift away from an open global free trade economy of the last twenty years to one focused within blocs and with much more onshore production. China is a huge question. Will Xi be emboldened by Putin and cosy up with Russia? Will we now face the prospect of two increasingly evil and dangerous empires led by autocrats likely to be in power long after any of today’s western leaders?
Whatever happens now, we have already crossed a dangerous threshold. De-facto annexation of the separatist republics in the east of Ukraine and expansion to a Greater Crimea region looks inevitable, while a full invasion, installation of a puppet regime in Kiev, and protracted bloody conflict thereafter is also on the cards.
We are in completely uncharted territory, and we are not in control. But we have no option other than to brace up. It is time for cool heads, deep thinking, and resolution as we stay calm and carry on.
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