Starmer outclasses Johnson in the Commons, but how can he beat him in the country?

A Jeremy Corbyn fan on my Twitter feed asked this question of Labour stalwarts: “Will you vote Labour under Keir Starmer?” Just under 75 per cent said “No”. This is the Far Left lobbing hand grenades, outraged at the exile of their idol. This will pass. Starmer is secure enough. But he needs eyes in the back of his head.

Across the aisle Boris Johnson is barely in control of his MPs. He no longer commands their automatic loyalty. The Commons rebellion against the latest Covid-19 tier measures demonstrates that his relationship with the parliamentary party is more than ever transactional. The tail is now wagging the dog.

British or more precisely English politics is awash with insurrection. It is not an edifying or a reassuring spectacle at a time of national emergency. The pandemic continues to claim thousands of lives. Brexit is barely a month away, but we have yet to strike a deal with the EU. Jobs are on the line. Lives are at stake. The news of a vaccine has brought welcome relief. But as our leaders squabble, the country watches bemused, appalled or indifferent, hostages on a ship that is rudderless.

Johnson will try to wrest back control of events in the New Year. A reshuffled cabinet will signal a fresh start. His party backed him because he was a winner. But it has become increasingly worried about his staying power. It will hope for more competence, less “bovver” and less grief. He will have his work cut out and he seems increasingly gloomy. The shine has worn off. Perhaps he just needs a break. Or perhaps the fight has gone out of him.

Either way, this offers Keir Starmer an opening to begin charting a route back to power. He has done well so far, largely by not being Jeremy Corbyn. He has outclassed Johnson with laser-guided precision in the Commons. His tough line on anti-Semitism in the party is playing well in the country.

But he needs more. To paraphrase Andy Burnham, Manchester’s metro-mayor, Starmer needs to answer the question: “What is Labour for?” So can Starmer do it? He can but he has a mountain to climb. And if Brexit is anything to go by, politics as usual won’t cut through. He needs to plough a different furrow.

First, Labour must recognise that Boris Johnson is not Son of Thatcher. He has a penchant for big state-funded projects. He likes the idea of picking winners. He is relaxed about opening the spigot to spend now and pay later. This is no longer unalloyed neo-liberalism. Nor is it traditional “one nation” socially liberal Conservatism. What we see is a new hybrid: tough on crime and immigration, looser fiscal discipline, relaxed public spending laced with British exceptionalism.

To win again the Tories need to hold on to as many of those Red Wall victories as possible. It’s a pitch for traditional Labour territory. Whether this translates into decent jobs, affordable homes, a reasonable standard of living, greater social mobility, care for the elderly and disabled – things that matter to voters who defected in December – is moot.

But when people no longer feel heard, traditional allegiances are junked. Working class voters, who for generations were as unflinchingly loyal to Labour as they were to their football club, voted Tory, many probably for the first time in their lives. The one big thing that Dominic Cummings understood is that voters in those constituencies are not so homogenous as to be unpersuadable.

It was an extraordinary act of faith largely driven by Brexit (and Corbynism). Despite years of austerity and ancestral Tory policies that favour the well-off, they went over to the other side.

It’s been said that Johnson’s rise suggests Britain has reached a Hobbesian moment. Voters want a strong central government. I think that’s nonsense. If that wasn’t obvious before the past nine, chaotic months, it is now.

Voters are becoming pickier. They are also becoming more vocal as the phenomenon of the e-petition shows. Millions influence events with the click of a mouse. It turns out people like the idea of having a say in the big issues that affect them: school meals, the environment, housing, planning, the disabled, schools, health.

In a thoughtful essay entitled “If the game is fixed – change the rules” Dr Simon Duffy, Director of the Centre for Welfare Reform says: “It doesn’t make sense for the opposition parties to keep seeking out shinier leaders and polishing up shinier policies. It doesn’t make sense to simply roll the dice again and hope for something better.”

The North turned its back on Corbynism. It will not come back to the fold with a different version. But neither will it be won back by New Labour, The Sequel.

Duffy offers a menu of radical options most of which I happen to agree with. But few are achievable in the foreseeable future: replace the House of Lords with an elected second chamber; draw up a broad, written constitution to entrench citizens’ rights; reform party funding to end the abuse of power by the very wealthy and foreign powers; reform the first-past-the-post electoral system.

Where I think Duffy is on to a winner is a carefully managed, but radical, devolution of power to counties, cities and neighbourhoods. Give power back to the people. Devolution is not a mistake as the Prime Minister suggests. It’s the future.

Labour needs to learn from the ascendancy of nationalism. It needs a new plan, one which combines social justice and national identity in equal measure delivered through a radical handing down of power to the voters.

It won’t be easy. Labour has won just eight out of 28 general elections since 1918. It is not, in historical terms, the go-to party of government in England despite being the begetter of great social change: the creation of the NHS; abolition of the death penalty; the Equal Pay Act of 1970; the National Minimum Wage.

It suffered a cataclysmic defeat last December. It was virtually wiped out in Scotland, a Labour bastion for more than 60 years. It lost heavily in its traditional strongholds where working class support had held up for generations: former mining communities in Wales, the north east and the Midlands. With 202 seats out of 650, Keir Starmer has fewer troops in the Commons than any Labour leader for 84 years.

A strong opposition with a decent chance of winning power is essential for the democratic health of this country after Brexit. It is also needed if we are to start redressing the appalling and growing social justice deficit.

A report by the BBC this week shows that the death rate from all causes in England’s most deprived areas between April and June this year is nearly double that in the least deprived areas of the nation. This is the harsh reality for millions.

The Tories may want to hold on to those northern seats, many of which have vanishingly thin majorities. It is doubtful they have it in them to do so. This is Starmer’s opening.

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