What can the West do?

“Give peace a chance. Too many people have already died.”
“The prayers of the world are with the people of Ukraine tonight.”

The first of these statements is from António Gueterres, the Secretary-General of the United Nations. The UN reminds us that its purpose is to prevent conflicts between major global powers. Today, as Russian troops seek to occupy a sovereign Eastern European country, much as they did in the last global conflict, those words look prissy at most. To the people of Ukraine, they will look as meaningless and irrelevant as they are.

The second statement is from Joe Biden. The President of the United States is no longer the “leader of the free world”. Whenever nations are threatened with invasion or occupation — Ukraine, Afghanistan, Taiwan — Mr Biden is all too willing to speak. He is not ready to act, because the government he leads and the foreign policy of his country is not ready to act. When the “little countries” call for help — Estonia threatened, Ukraine deserted — there is nothing that NATO could do, because they do not have the support of Mr Biden. The “prayers of the world” are nothing to the people of Ukraine this morning, and never will be. Presidents and prime ministers only offer “prayers” or “thoughts” when they can do nothing about it. Such as at a famous death or funeral. And today may well be the funeral of Western interventionism.

What can the West do? That is what is perplexing diplomats, policy-makers and their leaders. Chances of an invasion have been high for months. Germany has been vacillating for months over what to do with its precious oil pipeline. This morning, it finally comprehended the stark nature of its choice. Ultimately, as the German politician Norbert Röttgen said this morning, Germany has failed to grasp the reality of large-scale and prolonged warfare which is awaiting Europe. After so many decades of peace, Europe is facing its largest conflict since the Yalta Conference betrayed the hopes of eastern Europe in 1945. Putin is not Hitler, but Churchill’s words in 1936 instantly come to mind; the West as a whole seems “decided only to be undecided, resolved to be irresolute, adamant for drift, solid for fluidity, all-powerful to be impotent”. Among the uncrowned heads of Europe this morning, impotence is all too clear to see. For the people of Kyiv, as they prepare to defend themselves in the weeks to come, weasel words from their unfriendly neighbours will be little comfort.

And this crisis will undoubtedly last for years ahead. This is another fact that Europe seems reluctant to realise. The fighting ahead will not resolve into the slow-burning conflict of the Donbas or Crimea, though it may be just as intractable. Putin’s aim for a swift victory depends on the efficiency and acumen of the Russian army, which is not the military colossus Putin assures us he has. The Ukrainian military has made substantial changes since 2014, and has grown impressively. Western financial aid, particularly from Germany and America, will be funnelled into the Ukrainian effort. If Putin is not able to take key landmarks fast, he risks entrenching himself and his nation in a war they cannot remove themselves from. The diplomatic war for hearts and minds has been won by the West already: Russia is a pariah state. The Russian economy is flagging, and the harshest sanctions should have the explicit aim of bringing it to its knees. The only side Putin knows he must win is the military: the one aspect where the West is not prepared to act.

But it is not only Russian interests which are at play in the grisly fighting fields of east Ukraine. Along with Putin, Xi Jinping is the only man capable of calling off the Russian invasion. Sino-Soviet relations are like those of envious friends; Russia has to keep control of its Soviet sphere of influence, to keep up the facade of military might. Russia is not the greatest threat to the West — indeed its aggression can be seen as a symptom of the country’s weakness. Yet, if Ukraine falls, the West loses, and China therefore wins. If Putin fails, Xi Jinping can reproach him for inconsistency, from a leader who knows his way around difficult smaller nations. As focus shifts to Europe for the foreseeable future, the West risks losing its global focus.

Again, what is the West to do? A military blockade of Russia is the solution which Boris Johnson must have in mind. Western coordination on supplies to Ukraine are at least a substitute for NATO’s collective impotence. The shameful triangulations of Olaf Scholz will have to be forgotten, and Germany will no doubt play a crucial role in determining the collective effort of the rest of Europe. Emmanuel Macron, only just back from his disputed talks with Putin, will have to decide whether his self-appointed role as arbiter between East and West has been a piece of Gaullist genius or dangerous folly. Britain, with a new Foreign Secretary and a distrusted Prime Minister, has significant economic leverage, even if our stocks in diplomatic respectability are so low. Liz Truss’s recent embarrassment with Sergei Lavrov will not be soon forgotten; the eradication of Britain’s safe-haven status for money-laundering and influence would go some way to restore that status.

The Conservative Party has a problem with Russian money – but that is an issue for another day. The issue at the forefront of Boris Johnson’s mind and that of Sir Philip Barton at the Foreign Office is whether or not Russia will overtake Ukraine. It is the same all around the world. Amid all the bloodshed, acrimony, angst, anger and absurdity, it is ultimately a matter of personalities. Putin, the tyrant ruling over a crippling super-power, wants to keep face. Violence is his best chance. Many comparisons have been made to the 1930s today — many Ukrainians will think back to all of their multiple occupations. But the poet of the Thirties, W.H. Auden, has words which describe this latest aggressive tyrant just as well as they did the last:

Perfection, of a kind, was what he was after,
And the poetry he invented was easy to understand;
He knew human folly like the back of his hand,
And was greatly interested in armies and fleets;
When he laughed, respectable senators burst with laughter,
And when he cried the little children died in the streets.

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