Will Boris Johnson be the last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?
Scotland 2014 (Shutterstock)
The Tories are untouchable in England for the foreseeable future and they’ve enjoyed a startling revival in Wales. But the campaign result has brought the Union in Scotland and Northern Ireland into question. Scottish separatists claim they’ve won a mandate to rerun the 2014 independence referendum, while unionists in Ulster now hold fewer seats than their nationalist opponents.
When Boris Johnson became prime minister he appointed himself Minister for the Union and said he was determined to become “a leader for the whole United Kingdom”.
Previously, some Conservatives argued that Scottish independence would increase their hold on power and this election result will strengthen that belief. But if we accept the Tory leader’s claims that he is a passionate unionist, then he must find a way to fend off Scots and Irish nationalism at the same time as delivering his Brexit deal.
If he really intends to prioritise the Union, there are some positive signs that he could do an effective job. Johnson is already obliged to govern in the interests of a broader swathe of the country, thanks to the Tories’ success in areas where previously they had little chance of winning. The make-up of the Conservative Party has changed, as candidates from traditional Labour seats in the north of England, the Midlands and Wales were elected as MPs.
The government will have to emphasise policies that are in the interests of these new constituents — like funding the NHS, protecting benefits and prioritising policing — and balance them carefully with liberal ideas of personal and economic freedom. A Conservative party that reflects the values and anxieties of voters in working-class areas of northern England is likely to appeal to voters in Scotland and Northern Ireland as well.
At the weekend, Michael Gove was the latest Tory to rule out another Scottish independence referendum. The SNP claims that denying an independence vote amounts to “imprisoning” Scots in the Union against their will. It will stoke this grievance relentlessly.
The government argues that it is not the right time for a poll, but if Conservatives are seen to ignore Scotland’s interests, even if that perception is unfair, the pressure for a referendum could become irresistible.
The scale of Johnson’s victory will give him confidence when he negotiates with the European Union. Some commentators, including the outgoing Labour MP Kate Hoey, suggest that he may try to reopen the withdrawal agreement in an attempt to address unionists’ anxieties about an Irish Sea customs border.
That is unlikely. During the election campaign, the Conservatives offered voters a chance to conclude Brexit quickly, on terms the prime minister described as an “excellent deal” and they accepted that offer decisively. He’s not going to ditch the centrepiece of his manifesto and unionists, from Northern Ireland and elsewhere, will have to accept that their hopes of blocking the agreement have died.
The better news is that a secure Conservative government is in good shape to strike a beneficial free trade deal with Brussels.
Johnson has repeatedly promised that Northern Ireland businesses will have “unfettered access” to the market in Great Britain, without checks, paperwork or tariffs, after the UK leaves the EU. Now, Ulster’s MPs will try to hold him to those commitments, even if they require closer alignment with the single market than the Tory party’s most adamant eurosceptics would prefer.
The prime minister is thought to be more pragmatic and moderate by nature than hardcore Leavers, so he may find a softer form of trade deal appealing now that he has such huge support in the Commons. His former allies in the DUP had a dismal election and return to Westminster with their influence greatly reduced. They have little choice but to rely upon Johnson’s goodwill and hope his professed unionist instincts are genuine.
The prime minister is in a strong position to advocate an ongoing relationship with the EU that minimises potential disruption to trade between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, if he’s guided by an impulse to protect the integrity of the UK.
If instead, he’s determined to pursue the goal of a freewheeling, low regulation economy at any cost, then the damage already inflicted on the Union may get much worse in years to come.
