With one bound, Trump is free of impeachment — but for how long?

It still astonishes me that a significant number of people, from the wholly ignorant to the politically astute, thought Donald Trump was going to lose his impeachment trial in the Senate. There wasn’t even the slightest chance that this was going to happen.

Since Trump was elected in 2016, his political opponents have looked for opportunities to bring down his presidency. Early attempts to start impeachment proceedings go back to his first year in the White House, courtesy of Democratic Representatives Al Green and Brad Sherman. Others, like Democratic Representatives Maxine Waters, Steve Cohen and Rashida Tlaib, Republican-turned-Independent Representative Justin Amash and Independent Senator Angus King, have either considered or mused about impeachment.

Yet this president survived every effort or near-effort, including accusations of Russian collusion in the 2016 presidential election and the Mueller Report. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that senior Democrats, such as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, reportedly didn’t want to proceed.

Why? History wasn’t on their side. Two presidents, Andrew Johnson (1868) and Bill Clinton (1998), had previously been impeached in the House. Both were acquitted in the Senate, where a two-thirds majority is required for conviction and removal from the White House. Pelosi and Schumer knew the chances of success with Trump would be equally slim. The Republicans controlled the Senate, and the political risks of moving forward with impeachment far outweighed any rewards.

But a series of discussions between the White House and Ukraine last summer, in particular a phone call between Trump and the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, changed their minds. A whistleblower account alleged that Trump had improperly withheld the latter’s military funds for personal and political purposes  — in this case, an investigation by Ukraine into the business dealings of Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s son, Hunter. This allegation, if true, would have constituted a serious abuse of presidential power.

Even though Pelosi and Schumer probably still had reservations about impeachment, they decided to roll the dice. Last November, the House Speaker told CBS’s Face The Nation: “What the President did was so much worse than even what Richard Nixon did . . . Richard Nixon cared about the country enough to recognise that this could not continue.” This statement was preposterous on many levels, but it was probably the only way they could justify initiating what amounted to a show trial.

Trump was ultimately charged with two articles of impeachment: abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. The Democratic-controlled House of Representatives acted as judge, jury and executioner, and voted mostly along party lines to impeach the President.

At first, Pelosi refused to send the two articles to the Senate. In a ridiculous moment of political grandstanding, she wanted to have input in the trial and some assurance the proceedings would be fair. It was rather rich to hear Pelosi demand impartiality when her own proceedings in the House were anything but.

Pelosi ultimately submitted the articles to the Republican-controlled Senate, and the trial began on January 16. Democratic house managers such as Representatives Sylvia Garcia, Jerry Nadler and Adam Schiff, formed the prosecution. The Republicans countered with their defence team, including Representatives Doug Collins, Jim Jordan and Lee Zeldin, along with the White House Counsel, which included Pat Cipollone, Jay Sekulow and the well-known lawyers Alan Dershowitz and Ken Starr. After some jostling during procedural issues, the Republicans won a close vote (51-49) to prevent any subpoenas to call witnesses or documents.

On February 5, the verdict came down. Trump was acquitted 52-48 on Article 1, and 53-47 on Article 2. The only dissenting vote from either side came from Republican Senator Mitt Romney. It was the first time in history that a vote to convict a President had come from a Senator of the same political party — although Andrew Johnson was acquitted by a cross-party consensus.

Trump’s mood since the verdict can only be expressed as trumpiant . . . er, triumphant in nature. He was in a feisty mood at the annual National Prayer Breakfast. He criticised rivals like Pelosi and Romney, and held up two newspaper front pages that included the word “Acquitted” in large type. Near the the end of his speech, he made a gesture: “I’m sorry. I apologise. I’m trying to learn. It’s not easy. When they impeach you for nothing and then you’re supposed to like them, it’s not easy folks. I do my best.”

There were consequences for his adversaries. Two key witnesses in the House proceedings, Ambassador to the European Union Gordon Sondland and Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, were both removed within 24 hours of his acquittal. (The latter’s twin brother, Yevgeny, suffered the same fate.) Other witnesses, including former Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch and her successor as chargé d’affaires, William B Taylor Jr, left their posts in anticipation of what was to come.

I believe Trump will use this impeachment trial, which he often called a “witch hunt’ to his political advantage during his re-election bid. It perfectly fits within his existing political strategies: an Us vs Them struggle (or Me vs Everyone), the growing “deep state” mentality of collusion and corruption in Washington, and the political “swamp” that is getting, well, swampier.

Trump’s supporters will stand by him, and the hope is more political independents and fencer-sitters will join his growing political movement. Based on the mediocre slate of candidates running in the Democratic presidential primaries, and the fact his once-sagging approval rating has increased to 49 per cent in recent polls, I like his chances.

Whatever happens in the presidential election, many Americans are hoping this is the last time we’ll witness impeachment hearings in our lifetimes. Unfortunately, it may not be.

Republican Senator Joni Ernst recently mused that “this door of impeachable whatever has been opened” for Biden if he’s elected President — a statement she promptly walked back. It wouldn’t be surprising, either, if Democrats tried to impeach Trump again if he’s re-elected, since there’s no rule to prevent this from happening. Brace yourself, folks. Trump Impeachment Redux could be on the horizon.