Brexit: what if we called the whole thing off?
Tony Blair and John Major are two of the highest profile figures who have claimed that Brexit is an act of ‘self-harm’ by the British people. For many ‘remain’ supporters, that assertion is self-evidently true.
Yet, rather than nod your head or roll your eyes, depending on whether you’re a remainer or a leaver, let’s take a moment to think about the alternative. What if the decision were taken, at this very late stage, not to leave the European Union at all?
It would certainly make some problems go away very quickly.
We could forget about the ‘Irish backstop’, for example. The border between Northern Ireland and the Republic would continue to operate as it does today and, despite what Dublin might imply, that includes CCTV cameras and occasional spot-checks. No ‘insurance policy’ would be needed, though, to prevent the EU from demanding new infrastructure and tracking at the frontier.
There would be no reason either to plan for checks on goods moving between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, as the rules would stay the same on either side of the Irish Sea. We would no longer have to contemplate an economic border, dividing two parts of the UK internal market.
The civil service could relax. It would no longer be required to plan for a Brexit, the likely outcome of which seems to change on a daily basis. Mind you, all the new staff who were recruited to help with preparations might quickly find themselves looking for new jobs. It’s unlikely that they could all be redeployed usefully and productively to different tasks.
Politically, chaos and upheaval would be practically inevitable if Article 50 were revoked. Whether the government reversed policy dramatically, or whether parliament forced a change by imposing its will on the executive, the anger and turmoil would almost certainly be unprecedented.
At best, the traditional party system would be ripped apart and a populist insurgency, possibly in the shape of Nigel Farage’s new Brexit party, would be unleashed. We could even see disorder on the streets.
Irrespective of which sequence of events led to Britain stay in the EU, that outcome would represent a blow to the nation’s self-esteem that would be potentially fatal. Effectively, we’d be admitting that we didn’t have the commitment or ingenuity to go through with Brexit. It would be an abject humiliation and embarrassment.
Some immediate dangers to the Union might dissipate. There’d be less chatter about threats to the peace process and border polls in Northern Ireland. The Scottish government and Irish nationalists would lose a lever they’ve used ruthlessly to foster grievances.
Yet, it would likely create a brooding perception in England that Brexit had been derailed undemocratically because of the apparent needs of other parts of the United Kingdom. English resentment could damage the Union far more than the demands of nationalists in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Then, if we were to reverse our decision completely, could we expect to be treated with respect by the rest of the EU and countries further afield? We’d be the problem child that had stomped out of class, only to slope back after fifteen minutes of muttering to ourselves and kicking stones behind the bike-sheds. Would we ever be taken seriously in the international community again?
The UK is still exceptionally divided and there’s still no obvious majority – in the House of Commons or outside – for a particular form of Brexit. There were compelling arguments originally to remain in the EU, but we can’t simply pretend that the last three years never happened.
Brexit involves certain risks but if we reversed the decision to leave, after all that has happened, it would be a far greater act of self-harm than abiding by the referendum result. The UK would be humiliated like never before, but, more importantly, it would be a blow to national morale and self-confidence from which we might never fully recover.