Fire, blood and oil: Shukman’s doomsday
David Shukman
“We’re Doomed, I tell ye, Doooomed!” I couldn’t get the Dad’s Army actor John Laurie’s catchphrase out of my head as I read this gripping and alarming book: The Response: A Story of Fire and Blood in Britain’s New Age of Extremes (Witness Books, 313 pp, £25). Its title is ironic. David Shukman’s point is that the various disasters consequent on global warming have failed to elicit the necessary responses, let alone correctives, especially in cash-strapped and not terribly competent Britain. These challenges are already occurring, and as soon as they do occur they are ignored or forgotten.
Mr Shukman is the BBC’s former science editor, in which role he led the corporation’s environmental coverage for many years. Each of the book’s chapters focuses on an example of a particular threat. He is a good reporter, and the examples are carefully described, with appropriate testimony from people affected. As far as possible he concentrates on actual and potential disasters in Britain.
The threats begin with grass fires in and around London, and the difficulties faced by the fire brigade, with shortages of water, personnel and appliances. The most egregious example is the blaze that devastated the small community of Wennington on 19th July 2022. On the borders of London and Essex and consisting of only 90 households, Wennington is something between a hamlet and an outer suburb, equidistant from the Thames Estuary to the south and the bigger village of Rainham to the north.
On that July day, the temperature rose to a national record of 40C, leading to grass fires all round Wennington, some of which also menaced large conurbations like Dagenham and Hornchurch. The London fire brigade responded as best it could, but there were urgent calls from other parts of Greater London, and, alarmingly, shortages of water. The Met Office had issued a warning four days earlier, but it had not been picked up by the media, or, for that matter, by many local authorities. Dominic Raab MP, then deputy Prime Minister, actually advised the public to “enjoy the sunshine”. The London Fire Brigade did read the warning, cancelled all leave and non-essential training, but its own messaging to the public remained low key – principally advising against picnic barbecues.
Despite its small size, Wennington actually had its own fire station which had survived earlier budget cuts. However its single appliance (or “pump” in Brigade-speak) was called away to help fight other fires in the area. There had been no rain for weeks, and the marsh on one side of the village had dried up. A fire was almost inevitable in the conditions. The firefighters on duty were also concerned about the effects of heat, describing the experience of wearing their uniforms as “boil in the bag”.
There was little actual firefighting in Wennington that day, due to competing demand nearby, and low water pressure. 18 of the 90 houses – one fifth – were burned down. Thankfully no one was killed, though one elderly resident later died of a broken heart. It could have been worse – many residents were able to shelter in the stone-built medieval Church of St Mary and St Peter. The churchyard burnt, but the church itself escaped.
The Wennington fire provides the book’s main set-piece. Shukman makes the point that things could have been very much worse in London that day if the winds had been stronger. The fire brigade coped, bravely but barely, and has learned important lessons, though it’s not clear that the local authorities have. If and when this happens again, the water companies are on notice that they must have adequate supplies ready, rather than “conducting tests on pressure reduction”, which was the excuse offered by the Essex and Suffolk water company in July 2022.
On the other hand, there is a general reluctance to discuss the lessons of that day, especially among members of the public, even in the areas badly affected by the 19th July fires.
Other chapters recount fatal instances of severe heat, atmospheric pollution or urban flooding in various parts of the world from France and Germany to Brazil and California.
All these terrors are symptoms of global warming, Shukman writes, and it is hard to disagree. Towards the end of the book, he turns his attention to the oil industry, which he believes has been deliberately downplaying the known risks inherent in their product for many decades. He zeroes in on the company now known as bp rather than British Petroleum or, when it began 120 years ago, as the Anglo-Persian Oil Company. In those days its task was to produce fuel oil for the Royal Navy, which it did, incidentally making Iran then one of the richest countries in the Middle East.
Shukman was delighted when, in 2001, its then CEO Sir (now Lord) John Browne announced that in future the company would seek alternatives to oil, and should humbly look “beyond petroleum” – bp. The problem with this strategy is that generating clean electricity simply can’t compete economically with producing, refining and trading crude oil. The change of tack led to huge debates within the company and in the City of London – bp shares are reliable components of most British pension funds.
Browne – one of the cleverest men who ever led a major oil company – eventually retired for personal reasons, but his policy was pursued with variable enthusiasm by his four immediate successors, until it became clear that shareholder value was being severely impacted. Despite being a well-run oil company with an enviable portfolio of petroleum assets, bp shares consistently lagged those of its main rivals Shell and Exxon. Eventually the investors’ complaints were heeded by the bp board, and the supertanker was turned and set once more firmly in the direction of oil exploration.
Typically, Shukman supports his polemic by finding and quoting a bp executive who thought the change of tack was a tragic mistake. This man would have been in a very small minority, from my conversations over the years with friends and contacts at bp. Oil companies are sui generis, expertly deploying huge amounts of private capital in risky exploration. Shukman argues that they ignore the much greater risks of their success. But with oil and gas still accounting for the majority of energy actually consumed around the world, and likely to continue being consumed in huge quantities for many years to come, it makes no sense just to abandon efforts necessary to supply our requirements.
Even in a wealthy country like Britain it is no simple matter – and certainly not cheap – to switch from combustion engines and gas boilers to electric vehicles and air source heat pumps. Shukman argues that oil should come with a “dirty discount” to reflect the costs and consequences of burning it. This he says, would be a fairer and more accurate way of looking at the problem than the “green premium” needed to support renewables.
Most people, if not Ed Miliband, realise that fossil fuels are not just going to go away, and that the practical counter to the effects of global warming is to find ways to adapt. Tokyo has installed pavements that reflect heat and retain moisture; Paris has drinking fountains and cooling mist sprays. Seville has installed awnings to provide shade in its narrow streets. Even in London, some local councils have adopted strategies to deal with wild fires and flooding, such as firebreaks and clearing land full of flammable grass and shrubs.
“Protection lies at the heart of it all… we have opportunities to make ourselves not just healthier but safer”, the author concludes this fascinating and urgent book. It is well worth reading, even, or especially, if you are a climate change sceptic.
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