How do Trump and May survive?

Donald Trump and Theresa May have both just survived attempts to depose them. In the case of the President, the Mueller inquiry has revealed that a “troll farm” near St Petersburg did indeed try to influence the 2016 US election. Despite two years of investigation, however, it failed to find evidence of collusion with the Trump campaign.

Meanwhile, the Prime Minister has headed off a Cabient coup by summoning senior Tories, including some of her potential rivals, to Chequers for a showdown. When it came to the crunch, it seems that nobody was prepared to tell Mrs May to go. She will chair a Cabinet meeting today that will set out the latest plan for Brexit, after the EU gave her an fortnight’s grace in which to come up with a solution.

These political near-death experiences are bound to have an impact on the two leaders. Trump has reacted with characteristic ebullience, tweeting in capital letters the word “EXONERATION”. He has claimed all along that the Mueller inquiry was a plot by the Democrats to reverse the election result.

In fact, the report demonstrates the opposite: Robert Mueller, the Special Counsel, preserved impartiality throughout and has refused to go beyond the evidence. In the face of a cacophony of speculation, he has stuck to the presumption of innocence. Whether his conclusions do indeed amount to “total” exoneration, especially on the issue of obstruction of justice, won’t be clear until the full report is published. Mueller himself chose his words carefully, stating that “while this report does not conclude that the President committed a crime, it also does not exonerate him”.

Such nuances, however, will be lost in the maelstrom of Washington politics. Trump is now expected to launch a ferocious counter-attack against his tormentors. Freed from the burden of an inquisatorial process that threatened not only his survival in office but also his liberty, the President is also likely to be more active on the international stage. Expect a flurry of initiatives in the Middle East, the Far East and not least, Europe. Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron must be battening down the hatches. An unconstrained Trump might carry out his threats to impose tariffs on German cars and even sanctions on Europeans who trade with Iran, not to mention tearing up the Nato rulebook to penalise member states that don’t pay their fair share. In Berlin there is already talk of expelling the US ambassador for criticising the ruling coalition’s failure to increase defence spending as a proportion of GDP. But we may not have seen anything yet. If Trump were to be re-elected next year, Europe and America could diverge as never before. Which way would Britain jump?

Compared to these geopolitical consequences of a domestic story, events in Britain might seem somewhat parochial. But it does matter whether Mrs May stays in office over the coming weeks and months. For one thing, the constitutional propriety of her replacement by David Lidington or Michael Gove, as was rumoured over the weekend, would have been dubious. The country has had enough of the Speaker playing fast and loose with the unwritten constitution without ministers, already split by faction, usurping the right to depose the Prime Minister. The proper conduct for members of the Government who refuse to be bound by collective responsibility is to resign. If enough of them were to do so, Mrs May’s position would become untenable.

Yesterday, however, none of the plotters showed their hands. Neither those who were invited to Chequers nor those who were not broke cover. The moment of maximum danger for the Prime Minister, after her humiliation in Brussels last week, has passed.

So Donald Trump and Theresa May, reviled and pitied respectively, both live to fight another day. Though their circumstances are very different, the underlying reason for their survival is the same. In both cases, their opponents lack any serious alternative proposal that commands consensus.

Trump’s policies at home and abroad are high risk, but managing decline — which was Obama’s strategy over eight years — is not an option. Trump’s election slogan has morphed from “Make America Great Again” to “Keep America Great!” That will resonate with voters far more than anything the Democrats have come up with so far.

Similarly, Mrs May owns Brexit in a way that no other potential Prime Minister ever could. Allowing her to see it through, for better or worse, seems like the safest option to most of those who covet her job. Nor can she be deposed by Brussels, at least for now. For nearly three years, the EU has been willing to wound but afraid to strike, for fear of something worse. At Brussels, they came face to face with a no-deal Brexit — and blinked. Armed with a reprieve, Mrs May has a window of opportunity. This week she will be challenged by Parliament, but a vote of confidence is unlikely.

What do we conclude? That it is unwise to write off embattled leaders when no obvious successor is in prospect. Neither the Democrats nor Labour are evidently more palatable to the Americans or the British than the incumbents. Theresa May is no Margaret Thatcher. Nor is Trump a Reagan. Right now, however, there is no alternative.