The political impact of coronavirus is already being felt. Can Boris rise to the challenge?

As the deadly strain of coronavirus continues to accelerate its spread, the political impact of a likely pandemic is now a hot topic for commentators. Niall Ferguson, the British historian based at Stanford’s Hoover Institution in California, argues that Donald Trump could well be swept out of office by coronavirus (Covid-19) and replaced by Bernie Sanders, who advocates free state-run healthcare.

This week’s Super Tuesday primaries will be the first big test of the Democrats. Will they throw in their lot with Senator Sanders, the self-styled democratic socialist, or with Mike Bloomberg, who is the only candidate so far to focus on the Covid-19 threat? Last night the New York billionaire paid for a three-minute “candidate address” to the nation, presenting himself as the leader who could tackle the health crisis, in contrast to a President who “is putting lives at risk by ignoring science”. Pace Professor Ferguson, it is Bloomberg rather than Sanders who is likely to appeal to Americans worried about the competence of the Trump administration to get on top of the epidemic. 

Another possible scenario is the cessation, at least temporarily, of free movement of people in the European Union. This could become a big political issue because the Turkish government is no longer merely threatening to unleash a new wave of Syrian migrants on its European neighbours — it has already started doing so. The Greeks responded by reinforcing their defences on the border with Turkey, leaving an unknown number of refugees caught in no-man’s-land.

So far, the EU authorities have been silent, but their silence speaks volumes. When, sooner or later, EU leaders bring themselves to address the migration problem, they will doubtless back the Greeks and any other member states that keep their borders closed. It is a safe bet that there will be no return to Angela Merkel’s Willkommenskultur (“welcome culture”) of 2015, neither in Germany nor anywhere else in Europe. To fear of deadly Islamist terror must now be added fear of a killer virus. The wave of enthusiasm for open borders in Europe is, at least for the time being, ebbing away.

Another unforeseen impact may be on climate change activism. Last week Extinction Rebellion held a large rally in Bristol. Some 30,000 young people braved bad weather to hear Greta Thunberg warning them that climate change is the greatest threat of our time. That message is suddenly less urgent when the Government’s own worst-case scenario postulates the entire country getting the virus and 500,000 Britons dying. Admittedly, Covid-19 is a respiratory disease that disproportionately affects those over 40, but the young will still be massively affected, as schools and universities close.

Suddenly, holding large demonstrations such as the Extinction Rebellion one in Bristol, looks like the height of irresponsibility. However they try to blame the pandemic on the same elites that have allegedly ignored climate change, the prophets of environmental catastrophe are no longer relevant to what has now usurped their cause as the gravest danger of the day.

Finally, what will Covid-19 mean for Boris Johnson and his unexpectedly fractious team? By common consent, the Prime Minister has been slow off the mark, but over the weekend he was touring hospitals and preparing a “battle plan” for today’s Cobra meeting. We shall know more about what this plan will involve shortly, but we do know that known cases in the UK are increasingly exponentially and Matt Hancock has already said that it is likely to become “endemic” here.

Despite the usual noises off, Johnson has a good record of rising to a challenge. Absent on a foreign holiday during the 2011 riots, the then Mayor ensured that they did not recur over the next five years of his tenure. More recently, his forward planning for Brexit contingencies is likely to stand him in good stead, just in case global supplies were to be interrupted. There is every reason to suppose that as Prime Minister he will show his usual energy and ability to absorb facts; we already know that he is a quick study.

Unlike the US, the concern here is not about the competence of the Government to deal with a crisis, but rather that this particular crisis has come too soon. The Johnson administration has not yet had a chance to calm the hostilities of recent years. Britain is more than usually divided, but we need unity in the face of coronavirus, which will spare the most vulnerable least. This is a peril that will require not merely medical mastery, but real statesmanship. Has Boris Johnson got the political skills to reassure an anxious nation, prevent panic and comfort the afflicted? We are about to find out.