The Week in Westminster: a digest
Withdrawal Agreement Bill to come back to Commons
Meaningful Vote 4, the sequel no one wanted, is coming to the House of Commons in the first week of June. Theresa May’s allies (as in, the handful of Conservative MPs who don’t want her gone before sunset), fear the legislation is on course for yet another defeat, with dozens of Conservative rebels continuing to oppose it. Perhaps most worryingly for the Prime Minister, a handful of ‘switchers’ (the name given to members of the ERG who eventually backed the Withdrawal Agreement on the third reading) have switched back again, believing, probably correctly, that voting down the Withdrawal Agreement Bill is the surest way to get rid of their troublesome leader as quickly as possible.
On the other hand, as Nick Boles has pointed out, WAB – the nickname for the bill which would implement the divorce treaty with Brussels – will only be amendable if it passes second reading, so if Labour MPs are whipped to vote against it, as Keir Starmer has promised, they will defeat the only vehicle that could actually deliver a second referendum.
The best hope for May now is that Labour Remainers will support the WAB, with the intention of paving the way to a confirmatory referendum via a clause added to the legislation.
As best case scenarios go, it doesn’t sound great for the PM.
Grey suits came for May
Following the announcement of the return of WAB, the 1922 committee finally decided that enough was enough. After meeting the Prime Minister yesterday, Chairman Graham Brady confirmed that on 3rd June, he would meet the Prime Minister again “to agree a timetable for the election of a new leader”. A meeting in which another meeting was agreed may not sound that exciting, but according to BBC sources, Mrs May has privately admitted that if WAB doesn’t pass, she will announce she is going.
Although understandably, given the last year, lots of commentators say they won’t believe it until they see it….
Cross Party talks fell through
In a development which has surprised precisely no one, the cross party talks between Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May have officially fallen through. Speaking in Bristol at a campaign event for next week’s European elections (the first time, incidentally, the Prime Minister has really acknowledged that the elections are happening), May said that though the negotiations had been constructive, it was impossible “to overcome the fact that there isn’t a common position in Labour about whether they want to deliver Brexit or have a second referendum and try to reverse it.”
Meanwhile, in his letter to the prime minister, released on Friday, the Labour leader said the talks, designed to find a compromise Brexit plan, had been undermined by both a lack of common ground and concerns about whether a successor to May would stick to any deal.
Who’d have thunk it?