The week in Westminster - made simple

To the casual observer, this week has been a quiet one for Brexit. Last Tuesday the Government was dealt an enormous blow when the Prime Minister’s Brexit Deal, her central (and only), policy was voted down by an eye-watering 432 votes to 202. And now, it seems from the outside like everyone is taking a bit of a breather.

Take a closer look, though, and the Brexit waters are anything but tranquil.

Here’s what you need to know:

Yvette Cooper has tabled an amendment which could change everything.

14 amendments have been tabled for the big motion on Tuesday – and there are probably more to come. But it is Cooper’s, supported by Conservative MP Nick Boles, which is getting all the attention. Why? Because the limited bill includes a motion to extend Article 50 – and thereby delay Brexit – until the end of 2019 if no deal is in place by the end of February. Or, in geeky political jargon, it would take No Deal off the table.

Worryingly for May, who is trying to use the threat of No Deal to secure Remainer support for her deal, the amendment already has cross-party support – and there is talk of Labour whipping its MPs to back it.

An arch May loyalist has ripped up the Number 10 script.

Ever since May’s first day in office, Amber Rudd has been unfalteringly loyal. When May chickened out of the pre-election TV debate, Rudd – whose father had died just hours before – was there to step in. When Boris didn’t stand up to cheer the Prime Minister after her disastrous 2017 conference speech, Rudd was the one to drag him to his feet. And, of course, it was the Work and Pensions Secretary who fell on her sword to protect the Prime Minister when it came out the pair of them (but mostly May) had so woefully mismanaged Windrush.

But now, her loyalty is fading – and fast. After a gruelling interview yesterday, Rudd refused to rule out resigning in the event of a No Deal Brexit. Of course, her argument is that the whole Government (including the PM) is against No Deal, and to an extent that’s true. But, thanks to the Cooper amendment, the Prime Minister now has the option to rule out – or at least delay – a ‘cliff edge’ Brexit. But, despite huge pressure from her closest ally in Government, she’s not doing it.

Will Rudd back the Cooper amendment? And if she does, will she resign? Who on earth would take her place?

Jacob Rees-Mogg has gone rogue

Jacob Rees-Mogg has always been a pretty hardcore Brexiteer. But this week, he has truly surpassed himself. In a speech yesterday, the charismatic leader of the European Reform Group suggested ministers should “prorogue” parliament if a cross-party effort to thwart a “no-deal” Brexit (the Cooper amendment) prospers. Prorogation marks the end of the parliamentary session, so if the Cooper’s bill has not been given final royal assent by then, it would get thrown out with all the unfinished business.

Proroguing parliament early would mean dragging the monarch into party politics, something which hasn’t happened for centuries. Was it this intervention which made a nervous Queen tell us all to calm down yesterday?

Either way, one thing’s for sure – Rees-Mogg ain’t going soft.

The EU has blinked over the backstop

For months, ‘Brussels experts’ and assorted Europhiles have been telling us that the EU27 is 100% united in its support for the Irish backstop. But it turns out that’s not quite true.

This week, Poland’s foreign minister, Jacek Czaputowicz, called for the Irish border backstop to be scrapped after five years, saying “if Ireland appealed to the EU to change the agreement on the backstop in the agreement with the British, so that it would apply temporarily, let’s say five years, the matter would be solved….Of course, this would be less beneficial for Ireland than an indefinite backstop, but much more favourable than the no-deal Brexit, which inevitably approaches.” Later on in the interview, he went as far as to suggest that Ireland has been holding the EU hostage over the backstop.

German and Irish ministers piled in quickly to shout him down, but the intervention offers a shard of hope for the PM: if there are cracks in the EU’s backstop unity, perhaps, just perhaps, she can cleave them open and get her way.

The People’s Vote amendment has been pulled

After months and months of desperately trying to persuade the Labour leader to throw his weight behind the campaign for a second referendum, the People’s Vote brigade appear to have given up. Yesterday, Luciana Berger pulled the People’s Vote amendment, expressing her disappointment in the Labour front bench for withholding its support. Why it came as any surprise to her that Corbyn, a man who voted against every single European Treaty which has come through the House since he became an MP, wasn’t keen on paving the way for Britain to remain in the EU, I’m not sure. But she seemed oddly baffled.

Is a People’s Vote now off the cards? Don’t count on it yet. Some commentators think the second referendum advocates are putting all their energies into whipping up support for the Cooper amendment, for now, in the hope that an extension of the Brexit paralysis will eventually result in the Brexit question being put back to the people.