What do the midterms mean for Trump?
As the midterm results roll in, Trump has been congratulating himself as “the magic man”, quoting Ben Stein in a series of elated tweets. He is predictably celebratory about the effects of his unusual, yet potent interjections into a number of contentious races. Trump managed both to court controversy and rally support for beleaguered Republican candidates by personally campaigning across the country. He gave enthusiastic endorsements to a number of candidates and stirred up anger towards illegal immigrants and ‘socialist’ Democratic Party policy proposals.
His strategy payed off, to an extent. In Texas, Beto O’Rourke lost to incumbent Ted Cruz in the Senate, and, after a close call in Florida, Democratic candidate Andrew Gillum lost the gubernatorial race to former Congressman Ron deSantis. Republicans will retain control over the Senate (which is a win) – but Republican Governors in several states have lost elections to Democrats.
Perhaps the most interesting consequence of the Republican victories is Trump’s insistence that successful candidates are indebted to him, for his help in getting them elected. They “owe him their political career[s]”, as Trump put it on Twitter, quoting Fox News’ David Asman. Trump has always been aware that he is not a typical Republican, and that he differs with the party on certain traditional values and policy positions. But since his unexpected victory in the Republican primaries, his support within the party has only continued to increase. Will the midterms signal the formal acceptance of Trump by the GOP?
Whether or not Trump will hereafter be deemed a conventional conservative, the notion that Republicans in Congress “owe” something to him for victories in certain races is problematic. Congress is formulated to enact checks and balances on the executive, not to big it up. How Republican victors will react to Trump’s tweets on the subject remains to be seen.
Meanwhile Trump has received a blow in the House of Representatives. Democrats have won by a significant margin (they now have about 218 seats), meaning they control an important platform – which they could use to call for Trump’s impeachment. Democrats are riled up about Brett Kavanaugh’s appointment to the Supreme Court, healthcare, Trump’s stance on illegal immigration, and the political divisions across the country, for which they blame the president. The House will provide an influential arena from which to voice their grievances.
American politics has grown more and more unpredictable since Trump became president. What is certain, though, is that the midterm results will serve to deepen political and social fragmentation in the United States.
The midterms supposedly act as a poll of public opinion on the president’s successes and failures. With the Senate held by Republicans and a House dominated by Democrats, there is no definitive ‘winner’ – nor a definitive verdict on Trump’s presidency. It seems certain that both parties will claim victory.
