Will Theresa May follow the example of Peel in shattering the Tory Party?

“No one wants Theresa to be the Robert Peel of the 21st century.” The unnamed Cabinet minister quoted thus today is warning against the view that seemed to be gaining traction over the weekend: that the Prime Minister should accept whichever option gains the most support in tonight’s second round of “indicative votes” in the House of Commons. But what has this to do with Peel? And who was he, anyway?

Sir Robert Peel was indubitably a great Prime Minister. He pioneered the Metropolitan police force (known at first as “Peelers”) which imposed the rule of law on a disorderly society — ensuring that Britain, almost alone in Europe, had no revolutions. He created the modern Conservative Party with his “Tamworth Manifesto”, which set out the principle that Conservatives must embrace reform in order to survive, but should oppose unnecessary change. And he forced the repeal of the Corn Laws through a reluctant Parliament, inaugurating an era of free trade and unprecedented prosperity. More than any other politician, Peel was the architect of Victorian Britain.

Theresa May could only dream of such a legacy. She will be lucky if she lasts longer in 10 Downing Street than the hapless Gordon Brown, who had at least enjoyed a remarkable tenure at the Treasury. In the past century or more, perhaps only those who died in office (Campbell-Bannerman and Bonar Law) plus a couple of undistinguished aristocrats, the Earl of Rosebery and Sir Alec Douglas-Home, rank lower in the premiership division of politics. Why, then, should Mrs May dread the comparison with one of our nation’s most eminent statesman?

Because Peel, by putting his free trade principles before his protectionist party, split the Tories and deprived them of power for more than a generation. Apart from short-lived minority governments, the Conservative Party (as it eventually called itself) was out of office from his resignation in 1846 until his old rival Benjamin Disraeli won a majority in 1874, defeating the great Liberal Prime Minister William Gladstone, who had followed Peel and left the Tories. Despite having defined British politics for decades to come, among Conservatives Peel is now remembered chiefly as an example to be avoided.

Is Mrs May’s anonymous critic correct in warning against emulating Peel? A customs union with the European Union, the option that came closest to a Commons majority last week, would indeed be unacceptable to most Tory MPs — only 35 of whom voted for it — and to the party members who will have the ultimate say in who succeeds Mrs May. The 2017 manifesto on which they were all elected explicitly ruled out a customs union.

On the face of it, therefore, such a solution could not be pushed through the Commons except by shattering the Conservative Party — unless, that is, the Prime Minister were to obtain an extension of Brexit from Brussels in order to call a general election. But opinion polls suggest that the public has swung against the Tories, and so they would be unlikely to provide the two thirds majority required to set aside the Fixed-term Parliaments Act in order to call an early election. Even if she wanted to, Mrs May could not dissolve Parliament without persuading her party that they would be likely to win.

So where does this leave Brexit, the new deadline for which is looming next week? The EU has consistently said that no-deal is still possible and even likely. That option was once again rejected by the Commons last week, but 170 Tory MPs signed a letter in favour over the weekend, including several Cabinet ministers. Unless Brussels blinks at its emergency summit next week and proposes a longer extension to avoid Britain leaving without a deal, the latter remains the default option.

The division over Brexit has often been compared to that over the Corn Laws, but there is no consensus about which side corresponds to which in these two bitter conflicts. Both Leavers and Remainers lay claim to the legacy of free trade. But neither identifies with the man who paid the ultimate price for his act of principle. In 1850, four years after he was forced out of office by angry Tory backbenchers, Sir Robert Peel was thrown from his horse and died of his injuries. He was just 62 — the same age as Theresa May.