Bad news for Boris: the favourite never wins in a Conservative leadership race

Boris Johnson is now the clear front-runner in the Conservative leadership race—and if there’s one thing history tells us about clear front-runners in Tory leadership races, it’s that they don’t win.

Johnson was the bookies’ favourite last time, if you recall, until he was brutally undone by Michael Gove. That left the floor open for the Leadsom versus May play-off and the disastrous May accession. Johnson aimed for No 10 and ended up in the Foreign Office. Not a bad perch, but certainly not the one he was after.

David Cameron was never meant to win, either. The favourite in 2005 was David Davis. But one dazzling speech without notes later, Cameron—a complete unknown—had booted Davis into the long grass. Cameron had only been in the Commons for four years. That would be the equivalent of a one-nation 2015-er getting the top job now. Boris certainly doesn’t fit that description.

Go back further, and when Thatcher was on her way out, the supposed shoo-in was Michael Heseltine, who walked out of her cabinet, brought down her government and then challenged her for the leadership. More than that, he really looked the part. But he didn’t get it either. Instead, it was the much more obscure John Major who moved into No10.

And Thatcher herself was never meant to be leader. Ted Heath, after all, was a former Prime Minister with support from all the cabinet heavyweights. The 1975 contest was regarded as a mere formality. But she beat him so soundly in the first round ballot that Heath didn’t even contest the second.

So, sorry Boris: in the modern Conservative party, having your nose out in front in a party leadership contest is a strong indicator that you’re heading for the back benches.

Interesting to consider why that should be. Perhaps the Conservative instinct is to be suspicious of those who assume an easy path to power. After all, nothing is more repugnant than a sense of entitlement.

But also, and possibly this is more dangerous for Johnson, the Conservative party has always been, in its own way, very good at propelling itself into the future. That may seem paradoxical for a political project whose very name implies the opposite. But the recognition that domestic heavy industry would have to give way to the power of international capital was first grasped by Conservatives. It has been a party remarkably at ease with its two female Prime Ministers. The Tories were also the first to see the dominating power of finance, the need for closer relations with the US, and more recently, with China. Cameron’s line to Blair “you were the future once,” was so memorable not only because it was true but because Cameron himself embodied something so very different: young, internationalist, at ease with the world, father to a disabled son, and the PM who would eventually bring in legislation to permit same-sex marriage.

The tendency to pick surprising leaders is in keeping with this urge to move forwards. Tories, despite their reputation for fustiness, don’t really want to go backwards in time, no matter what their progressive critics on the left maintain. (It is ironic, perhaps, that Labour, the self-styled party of progression, has been saddled with a leader straight from the 1970s.)

Choosing Johnson would unquestionably be a backwards step. He has made it quite clear that he plans to re-tread the very same mistakes that Theresa May has made in the course of the past three years. That puts him on very shaky ground.

So don’t be surprised if Johnson is jettisoned. It would only be in keeping with recent Conservative Party history. And if he were to go, if we were finally to have a “Borexit”, who might come through from the pack to take the prize? If history were to follow the last leadership election, and the party were to cast around for a “safe pair of hands”, as it did with Theresa May, then that might point to a Michael Gove victory.

Heseltine vs Thatcher doesn’t seem a helpful comparison, but Heath vs Thatcher perhaps does, with its sense of political turmoil. In that case, Thatcher was the hardline upstart, in which case her equivalent might be someone like Dominic Raab. And if one looks to the 2005 Cameron victory over Davis, that suggests the winner could be a fresh-faced outsider—Rory Stewart, for example.

Becoming leader is, of course, only the first hurdle. The real challenge would then be to fight and win a General Election, and that will prove a very different contest. And of the three above, the only one with a chance of doing that would be Rory Stewart. He’s an outsider and he represents change. People like that sort of thing. And what’s more, history might just be on his side.