Drama in Dalmatia: who will be Croatia’s next president?

As the first snow of the winter starts to fall in Croatia, the country’s hitherto lacklustre presidential campaign is finally starting to show some sign of life. Croats go to the polls on Sunday to elect their seventh president. 

At stake is a five-year term in what is largely a ceremonial post. A crowded field of 11 candidates contains three realistic prospects – incumbent Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic (HDZ), seeking a second term; former prime minister Zoran Milanovic (SDP); and singer Miroslav Skoro (Hrvatski Suverinisti). Former judge Mislav Kolakusic is less of a contender than a keep-them-honest candidate running on an anti-corruption platform.

Corruption has cast a long shadow over the young Croatian state since it emerged from the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s. Its centrality in this election is no surprise.

The state controls more than 60 per cent of the country’s GDP, directly or indirectly, making public procurement particularly vulnerable to abuse. An EY survey in 2017 named Croatia the most corrupt country in South East Europe. Other polls have found that most Croats believe corruption is embedded in the country’s business culture and endemic in the public sector.

Rampant corruption has also impacted on Croatia’s economic performance. Following independence in 1992, Croatia had the fifth-highest GDP per capita in post-communist Central and Eastern Europe, up to 30 per cent higher than the likes of Estonia and Lithuania, a position it held until 2000, five years after the war. As post-war corruption took hold, however, by 2017 Croatia had slipped to tenth in the list, with GDP per capita some 25 per cent lower than both Baltic states.    

This month’s election initially looked as if it would be a straight fight between two internationally recognisable figures, representing the main two parties, Grabar-Kitarovic of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) and the former PM, Zoran Milanovic, of the Social Democratic Party. 

However, the ruling HDZ party has split along left- and right-wing lines, with the Right supporting Skoro to protest against the left-leaning position of the party president, Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic. Skoro has gained traction in the polls, turning what initially looked like a two-way contest into a three-way fight. 

Since becoming the leader of HDZ in 2016, Plenkovic has attempted to steer the party toward the political centre, hoping to transform it into a modern European conservative party. Ahead of Croatia taking on the EU Presidency next month, Plenkovic wants to nail down the country’s membership of the both the Schengen visa area and the Eurozone, bringing his party and the country closer to the wider European family.

With internal party elections scheduled for Spring 2020, the battle is now being slugged out between Grabar-Kitarovic and Skoro. The fierce opposition to Plenkovic’s programme from within party ranks may see Grabar-Kitarovic forced to move to the right to retain support.

Grabar-Kitarovic, known simply as Kolinda, sealed her patriotic credentials while watching her country play in the 2018 World Cup final in Russia. Wearing her team’s chequered jersey, she stood in the rain cheering them on, as Vladimir Putin sat stonily nearby under an umbrella. 

The first woman to hold the job since multi-party elections began in 1990, Kolinda has solid diplomatic and defence credentials, with a background working in Nato and as minister of foreign and European affairs. Her campaign for the presidency this time round has been beset by gaffes and insecurities, which have taken her approval rating to around 27 per cent, according to two authoritative public opinion polls. 

Grabar-Kitarovic’s main challengers look set to split the vote: Skoro, a populist folk singer with a PhD in economics, is polling around 22 per cent. Milanovic has been consistently polling at 24 to 25 per cent, potentially clearing a way for him to the second-round vote. 

Skoro’s right-wing platform includes constitutional and legislative reforms that would boost the power of the presidency over parliament and the courts. As well as support from the anti-Plenkovic bloc, he has backing from Velimir Bujanec, the controversial host of an extreme right-wing TV show.  

Milanovic has focused his campaigning on economic growth and fighting corruption. His main challenge is to mobilise voters on the Left. 

Kolakusic is polling around 10 per cent. The former Zagreb Commercial Court judge won a seat in the EU Parliament in May. He says he wishes to become president so he can fight corruption. 

A rare and welcome dash of colour in the campaign has come from Dario Jurican. He has officially changed his name to Milan Bandic, the name of the current mayor of Zagreb. His satirical campaign offers to bring “corruption for all” – and enabled him to collect 13,000 signatures, more than enough to become an official candidate. With the main contenders running almost neck-and-neck, a January 5 run-off between the top two candidates is all but inevitable.