Five key questions that could dominate 2021

Farewell and good riddance to 2020 — will 2021 be any better? The introduction of a new lockdown across England suggests that there are choppy waters ahead. Looking out into the coming weeks and months, here are five questions that will dominate the year:

1. Could a former US president ever end up in jail?

The recording of Donald Trump released by the Washington Post in which the President is heard pressing officials in the state of Georgia to “find” more votes for him, is about as damning as political corruption gets. It’s a “gotcha” moment so cut and dry, so definitive, so utterly awful that it almost defies belief. There’s no escaping it now. Trump is corrupt to the core. He has been caught violating election law in the most brazen way imaginable. Once out of office, will he go to jail?

If you believe the disgraced former attorney Michael Cohen, who spent years as Trump’s enforcer-in-chief, then the answer is yes. Cohen argued in his recent memoir that Trump, having lost the election, has also lost the political cover that’s been protecting him from prosecution. Cohen spent three years in prison for campaign fraud, lying to Congress and other charges. He contends that Trump is guilty of the same crimes. It’s a view that is inevitably coloured by Cohen’s own, highly dubious record, but with this new recording of Trump urging state officials to fiddle the numbers, there can be no doubt. Cohen was right. The current President of the United States is indeed a crook.

But could President Biden stand by and watch as his predecessor is carted off to Rikers Island? Even if, as now seems the case, Trump has done enough to warrant jail time, could the US system allow it? Or would the prospect of the former commander in chief going to jail just be too shameful, too damaging to US prestige?

My guess is that yes, it would be impossible for the US to have a former president in jail. The damage to the US’s international reputation would be acute and permanent and Biden would surely recognise this. In addition, the internal division within US society would become even more severe — and dangerous.

Trump will face charges when he leaves office, along with severe financial problems relating to the huge amounts of debt he needs to roll over in the coming year. He will end up in court and the evidence against him will be damning. Do not be surprised if Biden ends up pardoning Trump himself — in return for a promise that the former President goes into permanent exile on the golf course and keeps his trap firmly shut.

2. Will the European Parliament re-open the Brexit Trade Deal?

The government gave itself a hearty pat on the back for its last-ditch trade deal with the EU. The UK government has signed that deal, which has since been voted through Parliament and has received Royal Assent. The EU Commission has also signed off on the deal, courtesy of Ursula von der Leyen as has Charles Michel, on behalf of the European Council. So then — job done?

Not quite. There is one remaining, potentially tricky hurdle for the trade deal to clear — the European Parliament, which will begin debating the deal later this month. MEPs bring with them a wide array of national interests that are quite separate to those of the EU itself. It is possible that some of the provisions in the UK-EU trade deal will be re-opened for discussion. If that happens then the whole deal would be thrown into confusion. There would be a very sharp reaction in London. The Westminster government would argue that the deal is signed and that the thing is already part of British law, and that to unpick it would be an affront to British sovereignty. You can imagine the arguments — but they would cut little ice with the European Parliament.

If this does indeed happen then the turmoil would be appalling. Johnson and the Conservative Party would rage against the EU. But ultimately it would be impossible for No10 to ignore the European Parliament, should it raise any objections to the deal, because…

3. Britain doesn’t have an agreement with the EU on services yet. Could that be as hard to negotiate as the trade deal?

The drama of the trade negotiations with the EU obscured the fact that trade is not what keeps the UK economy going. The majority of Britain’s economic activity, around 70 per cent, is made up of services. (By contrast, fishing, on which negotiations became stuck, accounts for a mere 0.1 per cent).

Will Britain need an agreement with the EU on services? Yes — it will. “Services” include not only accountancy, law and consultancy services but also financial services, that jewel in the British economic crown. But as of December 31st, the City has lost its automatic access to EU markets, a position that is not tenable for London, which regards itself as the world’s most important financial centre. The consequences of having a “no deal” outcome on services were made clear on Monday when the City’s trade in euro-denominated shares simply left London for the continent. We can expect similar stories in the coming weeks.

Whatever one thinks of the City and the consultants, these firms pay huge amounts each year into the Treasury and help to drive the UK economy onwards. It’s all the more important that they continue to do so, as Britain’s economic position continues to look alarmingly weak. The final GDP data for 2020 showed that GDP was down 8.6 per cent year on year and that business investment was down over 19 per cent. All the signs are that we are heading for a “double dip” recession in the first three months of this year.

The government needs to do everything it can to get the economy back up and running — and that includes a proper deal with the EU on services. At the moment there are only a series of temporary agreements in place on services, which the EU can throw out at short notice. That’s not good enough. Prepare for another “deal” with the EU, more deadlines, more drama, more political brinkmanship.

4. Johnson’s popularity is plummeting — will the vaccine save him?

The polls show that Britain is not happy with the government. Perhaps that’s inevitable, considering the terrible year we’ve just endured. But it seems the British electorate has had enough of Boris Johnson — a poll at the weekend suggested that if a general election were held tomorrow, Johnson would not only lose his majority but his own west London parliamentary seat (the decision to allow another runway at Heathrow will not have endeared him to constituents).

The problem for the Prime Minister is that it has proved impossible for him to escape his own instincts, which have prevented him making the hard decisions until it is far too late, at which point he’s been forced to make them anyway. He’s done this over and over again. He dithered over exam results last summer, fiddled around until he was forced to introduce the November lockdown, messed about with the nation’s Christmas arrangements before calling it all off at the last minute and now he has waited until Covid infection numbers were soaring before announcing England’s new lockdown. Under the terms of the new lockdown, schools are closed, despite Johnson’s reassurance, given 24 hours earlier, that primary schools were safe and staying open. The trouble for Johnson is that people — ie voters — can see him doing this. They can see him shying away from these tough decisions. It’s the unmistakable sign of a weak leader.

Other countries have taken tough early decisions and now find themselves in a better economic position than Britain and with the virus better contained. But Johnson couldn’t do it. Good populist that he is, the PM has led from the rear. The cost of his failure will be counted in deaths.

The vaccine will save Britain. But it will not save Johnson. He has been found out. And once a political reputation is gone, that’s it.

5. Will things ever go back to how they were?

No. The Britain we knew before Covid will never come back. People have been moving out of the cities in record numbers. People have found that they can work just as well from home as they can from the office. Business managers have found that they no longer need to pay the extortionate rents on office space. People don’t commute any more, or, it seems, shop on high streets. The towns and cities have changed. As the vaccine takes its full effect, some of the old familiar patterns will return, but that won’t be the case for everyone.

The shifts in the way we live and work are clear to see — but perhaps the most profound change has been the way in which science has been thrust into the centre of British political life. For a sense of how far removed science has become from Westminster culture, look across the benches of the House of Commons. You will find hardly any science degrees at all. It’s a chamber stuffed full of humanities students, whose knowledge of science is confined to the “dismal” sort, ie to economics, which isn’t a science at all. Can any conversation about “diversity” in public life continue to ignore the worrying fact that we are governed by scientific ignoramuses? (By way of contrast, Angela Merkel has a PhD in quantum chemistry.)

The greater emphasis on science in British public life might also lead to a greater appreciation of the physical laws that shape our world — not just economic ones — and to a sense that our place on earth is more fragile than we sometimes assume. And if that is a long-term change that comes from this pandemic, it will be a welcome one indeed.

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