How Theresa May could rescue a victorious Brexit from the jaws of defeat

While it might be an exaggeration to say that Theresa May and her administration enjoy the confidence of the House of Commons, after having been buried in the parliamentary equivalent of an avalanche last night, there is nevertheless little doubt that they will survive today’s vote, at least pro tem — and for one good reason. With a Leader of the Opposition whose ineptitude was once again on display for all to see yesterday, there is, as Margaret Thatcher might have said, really no alternative.

By contrast, the bureaucrats in Brussels who look down on the British from a great height may be about to be swept away by the tide of populism that is rising again across the European Union. This May will see elections to the European Parliament in which the centrist groups that have traditionally dominated are likely to lose ground and may well lose control. There is a certain irony in the fact that the most powerful of them, the European People’s Party, is threatened by a populist takeover from within, led by the Austro-Hungarian alliance of Victor Orban and Sebastian Kurz. A springtime of peoples may not be the way this tsunami looks from Brussels (although Belgian federal elections, held simultaneously, are also likely to see populist gains), but from the Mediterranean to the Baltic, populists of Right and Left are on the march.

What does this mean for Brexit? On migration, there is convergence of views between the British, who wish to end freedom of movement across the English Channel, and the European populists, who are determined to curb the influx of asylum-seekers and economic migrants across the EU’s coastal and land borders on the Mediterranean and the Balkans. But on trade, the populists are likely to move the EU in a more protectionist direction than the status quo. This could be bad news for British hopes of frictionless trade with the EU.

This makes it all the more urgent for Theresa May to go back to Brussels with a new free trade proposal, perhaps based on a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules. Writing on the Politeia blog today, the City University’s expert on international economic law, Professor David Collins has just published an outline plan for an FTA with the EU. He argues that such a plan would solve the Irish border problem without the need for a backstop that would tie the UK into a customs union. An FTA would also avoid the problem of sovereignty: it would allow an equal free trade relationship between the UK and the EU, without affecting either party’s other trading relationships.

In the aftermath of the defeat of the Withdrawal Agreement, Jean-Claude Juncker warned that this had brought a “disorderly” Brexit closer. Given that in English “disorderly” is usually coupled with “drunk and”, this was a interesting choice of word for the notoriously bibulous President of the European Commission. But the Prime Minister should take him at his word. She should tell the European Presidents Juncker and Tusk and their chief negotiator Michel Barnier that she too rejects a disorderly Brexit. So a straightforward free trade deal, giving both sides access to one another’s markets, with mutual recognition of standards and minimal tariff and non-tariff barriers, would be the best way to avoid disorder. It would also prevent a hard border in Ireland, which Juncker, Tusk and Barnier insist is a red line. Mrs May should challenge Leo Varadkar, the Taoiseach, to explain why an FTA would not respect the Belfast Good Friday Agreement.

The clock is ticking, not only in Britain but also on the Continent. Time is running out for the two sides to come to a much simpler Withdrawal Agreement than the one that Parliament has just rejected, based on equal respect for one another’s sovereignty. If Mrs May could put the ball back into the court of Brussels, she might yet snatch a victorious Brexit from the jaws of parliamentary defeat.