If it’s a referendum you want, you’ve got one — on Thursday
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As a veteran of the last nine elections, I have always believed that whatever parties might want at the start of an election campaign, the public at some stage during the contest makes up its own mind about what it wants it to be about, and votes accordingly.
The 2017 election, which was designed to give Theresa May the space to implement the referendum result, became instead an election about her. The aspirations of the Conservative Party machine fell away, while Labour’s “Oh Jeremy Corbyn” had an unexpectedly good result.
I think this election might well be delivering the second Brexit referendum, but through the back door.
The 2019 vote was billed as the Brexit election. This was down to both the PM’s and Conservative Party’s determination to “Get Brexit Done”. It was a challenge accepted by the Lib Dems, who ran a corresponding Remain campaign, but not so much by the Labour Party, which took as its position: “whatever — you will get a chance to choose”.
All sides have raised other issues, which touch on serious and vital elements of the UK’s future. But on this electoral occasion, I think the public has also signed up to the idea of a Brexit election.
The Conservatives succeeded in corralling the Leave vote, courtesy of Nigel Farage. In the relentless use of their phrase, “Get Brexit Done”, they have the one identifiable slogan of the election. The campaign is focused on the main issue — in contrast to Labour, which has failed to engage the public on Brexit. It has sown confusion by adopting a position designed to encompass all sides at once.
Labour has also been sidetracked by the anti-Semitism issue, by its unpopular leadership, and by a manifesto which seems more orientated towards dictating the future of the Labour Party than winning the middle ground of an election. It has been less effective on the NHS than the media.
The Lib Dems have not had the public response they anticipated, though the party may gain something through tactical voting. The SNP has been given a run for its money by gritty Scots Tories.
But there is something here that goes beyond any clever, or poor, campaigning. The public has decided what this election is about, and it is not solely about Brexit. It is about Leaving — and the Conservatives and Boris Johnson are winning.
Look what hasn’t cut through. We have not had the “people against Parliament” rhetoric, or a detailed assessment of Brexit. The record of a government nearly ten years old, and which includes a period of austerity, has not taken centre stage. Neither has climate change and the environment, a serious issue now at the heart of foreign policy.
Labour’s “red wall” is a myth. When I was first elected in 1983, there were as many Conservatives in the North West as Labour MPs. These seats are called marginals for a reason: they are no one’s heartland. People switch between Labour and Conservative more than they let on.
Labour switchers need two reasons to vote Conservative. First, a lack of belief in Labour’s leadership. Bury North did not vote for Michael Foot or Neil Kinnock to be the Prime Minister, but they voted in droves for Tony Blair. Second, they need an excuse to vote Conservative. In the 1980s, say what you like, it was the economic competence of Margaret Thatcher, not liked but respected. This time, it’s Leave, which is being denied them by Labour. They have their reason to switch.
If the above is true — we can all look fools at 10pm Thursday — then the Conservative focus on Brexit has made this election as near a second referendum as makes no difference. If the public wants any other outcome than leaving on the PM’s terms, then they need to vote accordingly. If they do not, then it will be time to confront two great national challenges; making a success of leaving the EU, and rebuilding domestically.
I voted to Remain and am still distressed at the result. I voted for it in the last Parliament, but think a no-deal Brexit would be a grave mistake. A majority Conservative government would require us to prepare for a new relationship with the EU and to ensure that, for the Conservative Party, One Nation is more than just a slogan.
