The Conservative party’s policy-lite manifesto is all about the votes

Political parties formulate election manifestos with two objectives in mind; to provide legitimacy for their programme of government and to secure votes. The Conservative offer, outlined in Telford yesterday, skews ferociously towards the latter. It is a near naked instrument of electioneering, light on policy and dodging controversial questions, fashioned with the sole purpose of crushing Labour. Considering what a Corbyn-led government could mean for Britain this focus is entirely commendable.

Running through the entire document is the disastrous Tory manifesto of 2017. You can almost taste Boris Johnson’s fears of a repeat as you scan its pages. Nick Timothy, co-author of the 2017 programme, said it was crafted on the basis that “we had a huge lead over Labour” and “we thought we were preparing our agenda for Government”.

Timothy’s manifesto lost Theresa May her majority and eventually her place in No 10. The “dementia tax” was terrible politics. Johnson hasn’t dared advocate anything even half as controversial.

The heart of the Conservative manifesto, the granite core around which all else is fixed, is the commitment to deliver Brexit. This is a programme for defending a revolution already secured, not initiating a new one. On the manifesto’s introduction page five of the first six paragraphs begin with the phrase “Get Brexit done”.

Johnson’s core plan is to unite the Brexit vote around the Tories, smothering the Brexit Party in the process, while hoping the Remain vote stays split between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Judging by the polls, and assisted by Corbyn’s refusal to even give the pretence of being a Europhile, it is proving remarkably successful.

This enthusiastic endorsement of Brexit has shut some doors to the Conservatives, while opening others. Some of the liberal pro-business and broadly internationalist voters who formed a key part of David Cameron’s electoral coalition are likely to defect, most probably to the Liberal Democrats.

This block would doubtless be larger had Labour not adopted such a radical manifesto, with wholescale nationalisations and rent controls, which has reminded many on the centre-right that the Tories are the original fireguard around capital. Conversely, a section of pro-Brexit blue collar voters, many from areas traditionally deeply wedded to Labour, are now up for grabs.

The manifesto shows the Conservatives are thrusting for this group with both hands. It is, at heart, a statist document. Government spending will be boosted, though not to anything like the extent Labour is offering, with significantly increased spending pledged for the NHS, police and transportation network.

The NHS has been promised an additional £34 billion a year to fund 50,000 more nurses, 6,000 additional GPs and six new hospitals by 2025, with funding set aside for another 34. Pensions will continue to be protected by the triple lock, while social care has been thrown £1 billion, enough to give the impression the Tories care, but not nearly enough to fix the problem.

The Conservatives’ core message is they are no longer a party of austerity. Ed Miliband was once savaged by many on the right for failing to mention the deficit during a conference speech, proof they said of his unfitness for office, but it barely warrants a mention in the Tory manifesto. Nor are sweeping tax cuts on offer, which are virtually non-existent beyond an increase to the National Insurance threshold. This will give a small boost to low earners.

There is a consensus between the two main parties that the scope of the state should be expanded. The only debate, and given Labour’s offering it is admittedly fiercely contested, is over the scale.

Partly this is an effort to connect with a new blue collar constituency, made available by Brexit. But also I think it is driven by a fear of Corbynism. One of the few true successes of 20th century Marxism was in scaring the European, and to a lesser extent American, business elite into conceding a welfare state. Of course, this counts for little, compared to the ravages communists wrought when they actually achieved power, but it was at least something. Corbynism could be achieving the same on a reduced scale, even if its advocates are kept safely out of power.

The programme the Tories are offering — Brexit, more money for the NHS, a tough approach to crime and an “Australian-style points system” for immigration — is very similar to that advanced by Vote Leave in 2016. Three years ago this persuaded many working-class voters to back a campaign that could easily have been associated with the libertarian right. We can only hope the same trick can be pulled twice.

The Conservative Party, ever flexible, has recognised many blue collar workers are open to its message and adjusted accordingly. One of the biggest questions for British politics over the coming years will be whether this was a Brexit-related one-off, or the beginning of a more fundamental transformation.