The successful re-election of Justin Trudeau, Canada's first "black" prime minister

If anyone went into Ladbrokes and bet a few quid on, “World leader who appeared in blackface on multiple occasions gets re-elected in his or her next campaign,” your mates should immediately buy you a round of drinks at the pub.

Because that’s what happened to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Monday.

Trudeau, a Liberal, seemed like a sure bet to win re-election earlier this year. Yes, he was a weak, ineffective leader who struggled to string a couple of sentences together and had little to no understanding of economic policy and political tactics. And yes, his reputation as a liberal feminist had dissolved during public spats with several female MPs, most notably former cabinet minister Jody Wilson-Raybould.

But the man who had become the darling of political progressives when former US President Barack Obama’s second presidential term ended, resembled a teflon leader. For every pothole he stepped in, he came out looking almost as fresh as a daisy. The liberal media swooned at his every move, and ignored his never-ending gaffes, missteps and mistakes.

Beating Trudeau seemed like a daunting task for his political opponents, including right-leaning Conservative leader Andrew Scheer and left-wing New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh.

But things began to unravel after the Globe and Mail’s February 7 investigative report into SNC-Lavalin, a Montreal-based construction company. The Prime Minister’s office had allegedly tried to pressure Wilson-Raybould, then-Attorney General in the Liberal government, to get involved in the criminal proceeding related to this organisation and work out a plea deal.

This helped explain why Wilson-Raybould, who had been unexpectedly shuffled on January 14 into a less powerful ministry, Veterans Affairs, appeared displeased during the ceremony. She resigned from cabinet after the Globe and the Mail story appeared, but couldn’t get into specific details due to solicitor-client privilege. Trudeau had to waive it, but he initially refused and repeatedly claimed he never “directed” her to do anything, even though this particular word was never mentioned.

Trudeau’s position eventually collapsed, aided by the sudden resignation of Gerald Butts, his longtime friend, senior advisor and principal secretary. The PM waived privilege, although cabinet confidentiality prevented (and still prevents) certain details from being revealed. Wilson-Raybould spoke on February 27 to the House of Commons justice committee, and, using her well-heeled legal background, meticulously outlined dates, times, meetings and senior Liberal officials. She revealed there were several attempts to pressure her, along with “veiled threats” about job security when she refused to intervene.

Trudeau brushed her comments aside. He disagreed with Wilson-Raybould’s “characterisation of events,” and claimed the decision was “the attorney general’s alone”. An Ipsos poll released in March, however, showed respondents overwhelmingly supported Wilson-Raybould’s version over Trudeau’s version by a margin of 67 to 33 per cent.

In short order, the Liberals fell behind the Conservatives in most opinion polls. While this didn’t necessarily mean it would translate into a defeat of his government, it was an early sign the shine had (finally) worn off Trudeau’s progressive veneer.

The SNC-Lavalin controversy eventually slowed down, like most news stories, but the Liberals and Conservatives remained neck-and-neck for months.

The Liberals, who once claimed a desire to do politics differently, started to become vicious just before the election writ was dropped. They circulated a 2005 video of Scheer speaking in the House of Commons about gay marriage. “They have many of the collateral features of marriage,” he said about same-sex couples, “but they do not have its inherent feature, as they cannot commit to the natural procreation of children. They cannot, therefore, be married.”

Scheer never apologised for these comments, but acknowledged his views have evolved over 14 years. He’s said on several occasions the issue of gay marriage is “over” in Canada and he wouldn’t re-open this debate if he became prime minister. He’s also said the same thing about abortion, even though he’s pro-life.

Regardless, the Liberals opted pushed the narrative of a “hidden Tory agenda” as often as possible. They had used it against my old friend and boss, former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, twice. It succeeded in 2004 (although the Liberals fell from a majority to minority government), and failed in 2006 (the first of Harper’s three election victories).

Then came Trudeau’s blackface/brownface controversy.

On September 18, Time magazine released a 2001 photo from a private school yearbook that showed the PM in brownface. He was a 29-year-old teacher in Vancouver, B.C., and this reportedly occurred during an Arabian Nights-themed party. It was offensive, disgusting and he clearly should have known better.

During Trudeau’s apology, he told reporters he had also put on blackface in high school while singing “Day-O [The Banana Boat Song]”. The next day, a third instance was revealed that occurred during a “costume day” for instructors at a Quebec-based whitewater rafting company.

Trudeau claimed to have forgotten about this third incident, which some Canadians found hard to believe. He also preposterously claimed he didn’t realise at the time that blackface was perceived as being racist, and blamed this, in part, on coming from a “place of privilege”.

While most Canadians didn’t believe the 47-year-old Trudeau was a racist, he had clearly been racially insensitive for more than half his life. Blackface, which is often associated with vaudevillian performers like Al Jolson (although it goes much further back than this), has been condemned by polite society for decades. Trudeau had somehow never received this memo.

This issue alone – and there were others – should have sunk Trudeau’s campaign faster than the Titanic. Yet, he survived this incredibly dirty election campaign by catching a few lucky breaks.

It was revealed that Scheer had previously called himself an insurance broker without holding a license, although the rules were apparently different in Saskatchewan, the province where he lives. He also holds dual citizenship in Canada and the US – which doesn’t matter – but he never discussed it publicly and once criticised former Governor-General Michaëlle Jean for doing so.

There were also missteps by Singh, who said he wouldn’t form a coalition with the Conservatives and didn’t respect them on separate occasions, which he had to walk back. Green Party leader Elizabeth May, Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-François Blanchet and People’s Party of Canada leader Maxime Bernier suffered a few slings and arrows, too.

While none of these mistakes really compared to Trudeau’s brownface controversy, Canadians were surprisingly forgiving and gave him a pass. All of the party leaders had underperformed, were uninspiring at times, barely discussed public policy, and had caused many Canadians to shrug out of ambivalence and frustration.

In the end, the Liberals won, but dropped to a minority government. With 157 out of a possible 338 seats, Trudeau will now have to work with the NDP, Bloc and Greens on an issue-by-issue basis to get legislation passed. Even though they’re all left-leaning and aligned on some core values, there are enough political and economic differences to eventually lead to some serious disagreements. The average lifespan of a minority government in Canada is 18-24 months.

Trudeau also ended up with 33.1 per cent of the popular vote. He finished second to Scheer and the Tories, which was a small moral victory for their side. It will also be the lowest share of the vote of any party ever to take power in Canada, beating Sir John A. Macdonald’s 34.8 per cent in 1867.

There’s also a small irony in this number. It almost matches the percentage of people who believed Trudeau’s version of SNC-Lavalin. A coincidence? Most assuredly, but intriguing enough to bring his near-fall from grace full circle.