The UK's offer to three million Hongkongers may be right, but will it work?
(Photo by The Asahi Shimbun via Getty Images)
No aspect of government requires more careful consideration than decisions about immigration. This applies to the offer of citizenship to three million holders of British National (Overseas) passports in Hong Kong, which the Foreign Secretary has now promised to accelerate. The offer comes in response to the draconian new Chinese security law, which deprives the former British colony of the legal protections, enshrined by international treaty, known as “one country, two systems”. It is indeed the only possible response that is commensurate with the UK’s moral obligations to the people of Hong Kong. It is right; it is generous; it is proportionate. But will we make it work — not only for the Hongkongers, but for the country as a whole?
In the past two days alone, some 10,000 jobs have been lost across Britain. At this rate, unemployment could rise to more than three million next year. Mass unemployment, like mass immigration, has effects that are by definition unforeseeable. It is quite possible that by this time next year, the country could be convulsed with protests, which in turn could turn into riots. Almost anything could act as a catalyst for disorder; nobody predicted the summer riots of 1981 or 2011, but both coincided with economic recessions.
In such a tense situation, the arrival of hundreds of thousands of people from Hong Kong could create a perfect storm. Not that the new arrivals will take jobs from the indigenous population; they are more likely to create them. The injection of the Hongkongers’ famous entrepreneurial spirit is more than likely to invigorate the British economy. Nor need the numbers necessarily be daunting. Indeed, migration from the EU has fallen so much on account of Brexit that skilled labour shortages are manifesting themselves. There is little doubt that, spread over several years, substantial numbers from Hong Kong can be absorbed.
But will we have several years? Beijing is already treating the British offer as a hostile act of “interference” in internal affairs by a former colonial power. The Chinese authorities in Hong Kong are unlikely to make things easier for the British. Not all Hongkongers will leave; of those that do, not all will come to the UK: similar offers of citizenship have been made by other countries, including Australia and Canada. But the British Government must reckon with the possibility, even likelihood, that a large proportion of the three million BNO passport-holders will ultimately choose to settle in this country. If so, this could be the largest single wave of immigration in British history, exceeding both the postwar influx from the Commonwealth and that from new member states of the EU over the past two decades.
It does not require much imagination to visualise the headlines, the images and the dog-whistle politics. At present, public opinion is firmly behind the Government’s promise to Hong Kong. A YouGov poll found that 64 per cent support the offer. But public opinion is fickle. Will this support remain solid if jobs, housing and public services come under pressure in a recession?
As outlined by Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary, Hongkongers would be given a fast-track seven-year path to citizenship; no requirement to have an offer of a job or place to study; and no minimum salary threshold of £30,000. Employers might demand the same conditions for skilled workers from elsewhere, but only those from Hong Kong will be welcomed in this way. To the familiar grumbles of those who feel threatened by any large-scale immigration may be added the danger that others with roots in Asia, Africa, the Caribbean or Europe may resent the Hongkongers’ special treatment.
All this is predictable and, with careful planning, should be manageable. But the Prime Minister and his colleagues will have to demonstrate leadership of a particularly demanding kind. They must maintain a delicate balance, dealing robustly with Beijing, generously with Hongkongers and sensitively with their British hosts. Above all, ministers and officials must try to anticipate, rather than be overwhelmed, by events. They need to ask themselves the right questions long before the answers are required.
Will the new arrivals congregate in London, where a Hongkonger community already exists? If so, are the needs of existing communities being considered? For example, property prices in the capital are now falling, offering hope to first-time buyers. What will be the impact on the property market of hundreds of thousands of prosperous families from Hong Kong?
The Government cannot and should not take the consent of the country for granted. It is likely to be the most consequential policy of this Parliament. There will be opposition, even if the Leader of the Opposition behaves in a statesmanlike way, as he has done so far. This decision needs to be thought through, explained and justified on both sides of the House of Commons, in the media and at a local level. The integration of up to three million people from Hong Kong is going to test British society, as well as the economy, to the utmost. There is no doubt, however, that we are equal to the challenge.
