We need a total war on coronavirus. Here’s how to win it
Lloyd George, 1917 (Shutterstock)
The coronavirus is proving to be a very deadly pathogen — one that threatens to destroy much more than just millions of human respiratory systems. Stand by for major war level impacts. It is wreaking economic and social catastrophe on a scale we have not seen this century. It will upend our politics and turbocharge trends and changes across society and workplace that a year ago were mere specks on the horizon.
The enormity of change afoot has yet to strike home. Lord Hennessy, our leading constitutional expert, astutely warned us at the outset that henceforth 21st-century history would be defined as “BC – Before Corona” and “AC – After Corona”.
The major war analogy extends beyond the scale of impacts. Despite a major pandemic topping the national risk register for years, this one caught us out. Our plans, assumptions, technology, and logistics were based on the wrong war/virus. We were slow to spot its potential significance, and despite having the advantage of being weeks behind our European neighbours, we were wilfully late to mobilise and put in place all the necessary defences and resources.
The NHS was not overwhelmed, but the cost paid in non-Covid deaths and delayed treatment makes this a pyrrhic victory. We focused on the wrong target — deaths — instead of life years. Headlines saying Covid-19 has already killed more of us than the Luftwaffe did in World War Two may be true, but are not relevant given the vastly different age distributions. Government lockdown policy and communications strategy terrified much of the population and turned a temporary health crisis into a much bigger and longer social and economic catastrophe. Some respected figures forecast a greater economic hit than that caused by the Second World War.
Taking the millennial vernacular description, the overall British response to the pandemic has been a “shit show”. The Prime Minister and his government continue to demonstrate that they have been massively outmatched by the scale of this crisis. National morale and confidence are low. Our ranking in the international pandemic performance league table is acutely embarrassing. Worse still, just when we should be pulling together to face unprecedented danger, our “United” Kingdom has never looked more disunited. Indeed, it is poised to fracture.
This is fast becoming the equivalent of a major wartime turning point, such as 1916 or 1940, when a change of personality at the top, combined with radical change of governance and government structures, may be required to prevent greater disaster. As in 1916 and 1940 we have reached the point where we need a campaign of “total war” if we are to prevail. Today this means to survive and prosper as the fifth largest global economy and an exemplar of stable society. As before, we need a new wartime cabinet and rapidly adjusted command and government structures to see us through to victory.
The switch to Churchill and national government in 1940 is the best known wartime historical analogy. Yet 1916/17 is more apposite, with one major difference. We cannot afford to wait as long to rid ourselves of this “Get Brexit Done” Johnson Cabinet as we allowed Asquith back in World War One.
Personality and character are important leadership qualities. But the lazy media infatuation with personality blinds us to a bigger issue. As the eminent political biographer Sir Anthony Seldon says, the virus spotlights the wholesale failure of the British state for years. Our state, the most centralised of modern democratic systems, especially our government and health bureaucracies, are clearly completely unfit for 21st-century purpose.
British history is the story of fumble and stumble progression. We should avoid despair. We have a track record in times of crisis of turning things around and snatching victory to win the match after the most flaky and dispiriting of first halves.
We can do it again now. If we are bold and move fast.
Above all three things must happen.
First, change Prime Minister. The previous PM, Theresa May, was all trust and integrity and had little personality and leadership. This PM is too much personality and has too little of the other essential leadership qualities. Notwithstanding that he was elected less than a year ago by a landslide, he has squandered his authority and demonstrated that he is not the leader to get us through extreme national crisis. He lacks his hero Churchill’s strategic vision and “grip”. In the populist Johnson’s case “followship” trumps leadership. We need a leader who can ask the right questions and see several bounds ahead and drive us there, recalling as General Patton said that command is 10 per cent coming up with the plan and issuing the orders and 90 per cent getting (reluctant) people to deliver it. The bookies have Rishi Sunak as Lloyd George/Churchill in waiting, but it is probably too early to call.
Second, change our whole approach. Recalling Churchill’s “scientists should be on tap, not on top”, we should stop being driven by SAGE. Above SAGE and between the Cabinet we need a truly cross-functional net assessment body. We should put the next generations first and learn to live with Covid, shielding the vulnerable where possible.
Third, fast track change to a new federal UK structure, levelling up every region, pushing power and tax-raising authority down, and leaving a much leaner Whitehall to focus on national and international level issues, including climate change, foreign and security policy, trade and immigration. Given the Tory manifesto commitment for a constitution, democracy and rights commission, the pressure of the recent Act of Union Bill, and Lord Sumption’s call for a fundamental reassessment of political arrangements, fast tracking fundamental change will be pushing on a partially open door.
We have massively underestimated this coronavirus crisis. The impacts it will bring will be on the scale of major war. We must respond accordingly.
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