Britain must hope for the best Brexit scenario — but prepare for the worst
Whether or not Operation Yellowhammer is out of date, leaked by a hostile ex-minister, and a worst-case scenario — as Michael Gove claims — the no-deal planning document is more than just a scoop for the Sunday Times (behind a paywall). Nobody in Whitehall has disputed its authenticity and it is a political game-changer.
Yellowhammer envisages a full-scale blockade of Britain by the EU if we leave without a deal on October 31. It suggests that the Government is expecting food, medicine and fuel shortages, border chaos lasting months and the kind of economic disruption normally only experienced in wartime.
Even more unpredictable are the reactions of the public. The document mentions the threat of panic buying; whoever leaked it has ensured that this is already a self-fulfilling prophecy. There are also hints that the authorities are expecting strikes and other forms of disorder from those whose jobs and living standards are adversely affected by the crisis.
If Downing Street is correct to say that Philip Hammond, the ex-Chancellor, and other former ministers were deliberately obstructing contingency planning for a no-deal Brexit, then their irresponsibility is a disgrace. Their conduct as ministers should be scrutinised by the relevant parliamentary committees and they should be held to account.
As for Theresa May, who as Prime Minister presided over the failure to prepare for an ever-likelier outcome: she owes the nation an apology. Knowing as she did that the Withdrawal Agreement she had negotiated would not be ratified by Parliament, it was her duty to make proper use of the two Article 50 extensions granted by the EU since last March to work on the assumption that the EU would not budge. She did not do so. Instead, she allowed members of her Cabinet to obstruct preparations for the no-deal scenario. Whether or not she deliberately mislead Parliament, on the face of it Mrs May has a great deal to answer for.
More urgently, the present Government has a formidable task to reassure the public that everything possible is being done to mitigate the impact of a no-deal Brexit. An unnamed official was quoted as saying: “We have lost our ability to communicate the truth to the public — anyone is not believed.”
The threat of hoarding, leading to sudden shortages of essential supplies, and the possible effects of market volatility in the run-up to Brexit, must be factored into the equation. Above all, law and order must be preserved. All leave for police and military personnel should be cancelled; reservists and retired officers should be called up. Emergency measures, and the legislation to give them effect, must be drawn up in case they are required.
The grim picture painted by Yellowhammer is, it must not be forgotten, largely the consequence of decisions thought to have been taken in Brussels. A senior Whitehall source told the Sunday Times that the document outlines “just how hard the EU will punish us. This will be the way that the EU makes sure no country ever tries this again.” The official implied that this was an existential crisis for the EU no less than the UK: “We are a necessary casualty to keep the [European] Union together.”
So be it. Other European countries that are not member states, such as Norway and Switzerland, are used to standing up to bullying tactics by Brussels. The UK has the fifth largest economy in the world: big enough, certainly, to call the EU’s bluff. We must hope for the best Brexit scenario — but prepare for the worst. The message that Boris Johnson needs to convey on his visits to Paris and Berlin this week is: Britain is ready.
