Britain’s future relationship with the EU begins with Boris and Ursula 

You would never guess it from the way the BBC has reported the Brexit story, but last week we were so close to a deal. Until Thursday, the European Union and the UK side were making rapid progress, thanks to the temporary replacement of Michel Barnier, the chief negotiator, by Stéphanie Riso, a dynamic young Brussels bureaucrat (yes, they do exist), who reports directly to Ursula von der Leyen, the Commission President. 

Then Barnier returned to the table and, at the behest of Emmanuel Macron, decided to raise the EU demands at the risk of a no-deal outcome. Lord Frost, who leads the UK team, gave Boris Johnson the bad news. Reportedly, the latter was later heard humming Waltzing Matilda — a signal that we are heading for an “Australian” outcome (i.e. trading on WTO terms). 

Ever since, the Prime Minister and the Commission President have been in constant contact, seeking to repair the damage. But the mood in Downing Street and the Berlayment has been gloomy. Yesterday the markets predictably punished the pound, which at one point fell 1.6 cents against the dollar. Significantly, though, the stock market rally that began with the Covid vaccines has continued regardless of the trade talks. 

Sterling, too, later rallied on news that Boris Johnson would travel to Brussels to meet Ursula von der Leyen face to face “later this week”. At the time of writing, it has not been decided whether that crunch meeting will take place before or after the EU summit on Thursday. The British reportedly prefer to wheel out their biggest gun only after the 27 heads of government have decided whether or not they are serious about doing a deal. 

By then they will have been briefed by Barnier and Frost about the remaining differences. More privately, with the help of Ms Riso, Dr von der Leyen should have told them what the outlines of a compromise might be. Johnson has already removed one sticking point: if a deal is done, the UK would rewrite the contentious provisions in the Internal Market Bill that override the 2019 Withdrawal Agreement, in the unlikely event that the EU ever tried to use it to interrupt trade across the Irish Sea. But that and other concessions won’t satisfy the EU hardliners, led by the French, but including Italy, Spain and The Netherlands. They continue to make demands that they must know no sovereign state could accept — for instance, that the British be bound in perpetuity to a “level playing field” that the EU would police and, on state aid, restrictions by which it would not itself be bound. Ranged against them are Scandinavia and Central Europe, led by the Germans, who hold the rotating presidency of the council. Angela Merkel will have one last big moment in European politics, before stepping down as Chancellor next year. 

Yet this time, it is another German woman who is taking centre stage — seemingly the only European leader who is trying to broker a deal. After the chaotic years when Jean-Claude Juncker pretended to run the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen is a breath of fresh air — and not only because, unlike her predecessor, she is as sober as a judge. She is not only the first woman ever to lead the Commission, but the first German since 1967, when Walter Hallstein relinquished the office he had created. She has played a modest role in the Covid-19 crisis, her baptism of fire. This was unavoidable in circumstances where nation states have been dominant, but she is eager to make her mark by resolving the unfinished business of Brexit she inherited.

Now 62, Ursula von der Leyen takes her aristocratic name from her husband, but she was born into a political family. Ernst Albrecht, her father, was prime minister of Lower Saxony and a leading powerbroker in the Christian Democratic Union. Ursula was born in Brussels and spent much of her childhood there while her father worked as one of the first EEC bureaucrats. A doctor like her husband, she abandoned epidemiology for politics, while somehow having seven children. A loyal minister in successive Merkel cabinets, she has one firm conviction: she believes in a united states of Europe. So leading the Commission is not just a job for her: it is a vocation.

Her fluent English — acquired when she lived in London while studying at the London School of Economics — means that in talks with the British she needs no interpreter. Despite being blessed with brains, beauty and briskness, Ursula von der Leyen has spent her career overshadowed by Angela Merkel. This is her chance to step out into the limelight.

The hope must be that, even if the Council of Ministers concludes that there is not enough common ground for a deal, the British PM and the Commission President will pull a rabbit out of the hat. It may help that Ursula and Angela have worked so closely together in the past. The chemistry with Boris Johnson may not be quite so good, but a woman who was German Defence Minister for many years knows how to deal with men like him. Equally, Boris appreciates her frankness. As some of us have expected all along, whether Britain can rebuild a decent relationship with the EU will ultimately depend on Anglo-German cooperation. That new chapter in history will begin this week when Boris and Ursula sit down to talk turkey.

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