Can Europe save Ukraine?
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Is it too late for Europe to save Ukraine? The slumber lasted far too long. We need to wake up. As a 19th century Hungarian poet wrote in a different context: “Rabok leszunk vagy szabadok, ez a kerdes valasszatok”.(“Shall we be slaves or free men? This is the question, you have to choose.”)
This is not a rhetorical question. If Ukraine falls it will be followed in a chain reaction by the Baltic States, by Poland, by Moldova, by the Czech Republic, by Slovakia, in fact by all of Eastern Europe. And that would include my native Hungary as well. (Putin is not the type who would show gratitude for past services.)
We have now a historic opportunity. The three most powerful countries of Western Europe are in agreement. Germany, France and the UK: all three are determined not to let Ukraine perish. And for the first time this is aid that is going to replace the American aid, not to supplement it.
Do I believe that Russia can be defeated by an alliance of these three countries? No. Russia has enormous resources. She cannot be defeated, but I believe she can be stopped. It is well known in military science that an attacking force needs to be considerably larger if it wants to prevail over a defending force. The ratio usually quoted is a factor of three to one. Considering that Western weapons are more sophisticated, perhaps a ratio of four to one might be necessary.
The aim is to break the Russian will to wage war. That can be achieved by a constant bombardment of Moscow. The Russian elite living in Moscow would very likely pressure Putin to reduce his demands. What is Putin’s main demand? The cessation of military help for Ukraine. That would certainly finish the war in no time. But the Three Western powers have remained firm. They have already rejected that demand. Trump may or may not continue to supply aid. If the Three make it clear that Trump’s aid is not necessary, that would make Trump keen to offer help.
How strong are the Three? Let’s look at their economic strength. The GDPs of the Three are about 3 trillion dollars for France and the UK and 4 trillion for Germany. Russian GDP stands at around 2 trillion, one fifth of the joint GDP of the Three. This means they can stand fast, they can outlast Russia.
Let me just say a few words about Putin’s most chilling pronouncement. He said that he will put all the men who fought in the Ukrainian Army against Russia on trial for treason in special courts. And that is not without parallel. It has been done before. The most notorious example in the Soviet Union is the Volga-Moskva canal under Yagoda and Franco’s Mausoleum built in Spain by prisoners of the ex-republican army. Putin would be delighted to put that threat into practice. As for Zelensky and the Three: it is time to act.
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