Ceasefire in Gaza: the fog of war lifts

(Image created in Shutterstock)
Carl von Clausewitz, the Prussian general and strategist, coined the phrase “the fog of war” to describe the uncertainties of conflict and its outcomes. Nowhere is this more apt than the Middle East. And never more so than today.
We seem to have an agreement to wind down and eventually end the war in Gaza. As the news of the deal spread Palestinians, crushed by 15 months of war, and the families of hostages still held by Hamas, dare to hope.
If the deal holds, the guns should fall silent on Sunday. If that holds Gaza, Israel, the Middle East and the world can allow itself a moment of ever-so-cautious optimism. A terrible, merciless, brutal feud between neighbours that began when Hamas attacked Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023 will – may – cease.
Beyond that there are no certainties, just the famous fog of war and its aftermath. And questions. Let us start with the ceasefire.
Will it hold beyond the end of the first phase and the initial exchange of hostages and Palestinians held in Israeli jails? The deal is essentially the same as the one brokered by the US and Qatar in May of last year. Israel has gained very little military advantage since then. Hamas, gravely weakened, is still standing. More Palestinians and more hostages have died. Gaza has been levelled. But this deal could have been signed nine months ago.
So what’s changed? The simple answer is the man in the White House. President-elect Donald Trump wants an end to the war and no doubt has threatened Benyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister, with fire and brimstone if he doesn’t comply.
It is a reminder that, however formidable Israel’s military prowess, America still holds the key to its survival. None of Israel’s neighbours – not even Iran — individually poses an existential threat to a nuclear-armed Jewish state. But Israel still needs America’s money, weapons and political support. It is a spectacular example of Trump’s transactional politics: the art of the deal. Trump appears to have succeeded where Biden and Europe have failed.
The deal draws a clear path to ending the war in return for the release of all hostages. First, 34 hostages will be released over 42 days. Israel will pull out of Gaza, leaving some forces within a defined “perimeter zone” at the eastern edge of the coastal enclave. Next the remaining living hostages − mostly men under age 50 – will be released. Israel will complete its withdrawal from Gaza. Finally there will be an exchange of bodies between Israel and Hamas. This deeply symbolic act will mark the final and official end of the war.
Is Hamas walking into a trap? The deal requires it to conform to and satisfy Israel’s requirements at each phase of the process. Netanyahu and his religious, far-right loyalists would prefer the war to go on because it’s the only way to scuttle any possibility of a two-state solution. Each stage is conditional on the previous one going smoothly. So the real test for Trump will come in the second and third phases of the deal.
But as we peer through the fog, this is only a partial picture of how October 7 has shuffled the deck. A Gaza ceasefire may end this terrible war. But it does nothing to tackle the root cause of the struggle between Israel and the Palestinians. Gaza will take years to rebuild. The West Bank remains under occupation and subject to increasingly violent action, notably by Jewish settlers.
Is Israel more or less secure than it was on October 6, 2023? That’s hard to say. There’s a strong argument that says Hamas (and Netanyahu) have sown the dragon’s teeth condemning each other to generations of war and reprisals.
That is not say that things have not changed fundamentally. They have, and in ways which are meaningful and possibly long-lasting. The most significant change is in Iran’s position as a regional power. The theocratic rulers of Iran projected their influence mainly through its so-called axis of resistance. This now lies in ruins.
Hezbollah, which for decades has exercised a choke hold over Lebanon, is shattered, its leadership and its weapons destroyed by Israeli air power. Lebanon’s parliament, having failed 12 times to elect a president, has finally appointed Joseph Aoun, the former army commander, to the job. He promises to clean up and unite his country. We shall see. But, for the first time in decades, Lebanese friends see a glimmer of hope, now that Hezbollah is no longer breathing down their necks.
The big one, of course, is Syria. Who would have thought that Bashar al-Assad would fall so quickly, so quietly, leaving hardly a footprint behind as he settles into exile in Moscow? Syria was Iran’s bridge to the frontline with Israel. The Assad dynasty had been in power for 55 years. We don’t know much about the new rulers. How pragmatic will they be?
Nevertheless the fall of the house of Assad is a huge blow to Iran’s prestige and political muscle. The country is broke. There is growing opposition from the young to strict religious dress codes. It faces the uncomfortable prospect of an increasingly powerful (Sunni) rival across the Gulf normalising relations with Israel and building alliances across the world.
Saudi Arabia draws its growing influence as the Arab world’s premier power mainly from its oil revenues. This gives it immense political power. It is also guardian of Islam’s holiest places, Mecca and Medina, a position of great moral influence among the world’s 2.8 billion Muslims. Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto ruler, understands that to flourish a new Middle East order requires stability above all else.
Iran must now decide whether it wishes to regroup and revive its regional alliances. And, if so, how. Will it accelerate its nuclear programme? Will it turn increasingly to Russia, perhaps to carry it over the threshold to becoming a nuclear power? Or will it see sense? For the first time, the eventual fall of the mullahs is no longer inconceivable.
Israel’s military campaigns in Gaza, in Lebanon, in Syria, Yemen and Iran have shaken things up. New players have emerged. Turkey has played an important role in backing the Islamist alliance Hayat Tahrir al-Sham that toppled Assad.
Those who hope that a new order will be achieved without a pathway to an eventual Palestinian entity will be disappointed. Netanyahu will go sooner or later. After the shock Israel needs sober, long-term preferably consensual leadership.
Battered, betrayed, badly lead they may be. But Palestine remains a lodestone in the Arab mind. A fair deal for the Palestinians — especially after this terrible war in Gaza – is an idea more deeply embedded than ever in the Arab world — and beyond.
A Message from TheArticle
We are the only publication that’s committed to covering every angle. We have an important contribution to make, one that’s needed now more than ever, and we need your help to continue publishing throughout these hard economic times. So please, make a donation.