Election predictions: ten of the best

With the General Election fixed for July 4, we now have six weeks of fevered campaigning ahead of us. Looking into my crystal ball, here are ten things that I believe will definitely happen during that period.

We’ll all get very, very uptight about TV debates. Should they happen? Which parties will be invited to take part (the SNP will spit its nationalist dummy when they don’t get invited)? What channels will broadcast the debates?

2010 TV debate

By 4th July, we will all be sick of political football analogies. Additionally, at least one politician (probably Sir Keir Starmer) will play header tennis of the Tony Blair/Kevin Keegan 1997 vintage.

When politicians get put in front of ordinary voters, at some point hilarity normally ensues. Remember “the Prescott Punch”, Gordon Brown and “that bigoted woman”, David Cameron telling everyone he supported West Ham when he actually supported Aston Villa, Ed Miliband trying to eat a bacon sandwich?

Then there are the campaign stunts. For the absolute gold standard, once more we go back to Miliband and his 2015 election campaign. The best moment was the unveiling of what was immediately dubbed “the EdStone”: an 8 ft 6 in tall lump of granite featuring six election pledges carved into it, together with the Labour logo, and a copy of the Leader’s signature.

The unveiling of party manifestos is always a real highlight for political geeks and humourists alike. Michael Foot’s 1983 “longest suicide note in history” is a guide to how not to do it. However, as the election campaign draws to its conclusion, parties try to capture the political narrative by chucking policies and promises out like confetti: rail fares frozen, swing constituency bypasses created, prison sentences extended, police officers recruited, teachers given bonuses, and hospitals built in record time. You name it, there’s not a thing a political leader is not prepared to promise in the last 10 days before a general election.

There will be social media cock-ups. It might be that the intern at party HQ gets hold of the official party Twitter account after a few too many libations in the early hours of the morning, only to be picked up by an equally libated journalist. The most infamous social networking controversy to date took place in the 2019 general election, when the Conservative Party rebranded one of its Twitter accounts to “factcheckUK” during a TV debate involving Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn.

We’ll be introduced to party leaders’ wives, children, and parents. This is to make said politician appear like one of us, because, like us, they have parents and children. No, I don’t get it either.

I can categorically guarantee that politicians of all colours will get down and dirty on the campaign trail. Sleeves will be rolled up and hard hats will most definitely be worn. Various types of vehicles will be driven through walls or across artillery ranges. Most importantly, battle buses (or helicopters) will crisscross the land from swing constituency to swing constituency.

We will have the political campaign poster unveiling. This art form has been dying of late, with nothing really touching the iconic 1979 “Labour isn’t working” Conservative poster. (Ironically, unemployment went up under Mrs Thatcher and stayed at three million for years, but the damage to Labour as the party of the working class had been done.) A worthy mention goes to the “New Labour, New Danger” poster of 1997 — but that was a total failure.

Lastly, we have the election night broadcasts. ITV and Channel 4 will offer something alternative, but it will be the BBC who ultimately wins the day. Auntie may no longer have David Dimbleby, but I can guarantee you Jeremy Vine, Laura Kuenssberg, Sir John Curtice, sleep staved politicians, spurious graphics, and the latest descendant of the swingometer. My personal tradition is settling down to watch it all unfold with a bottle of Grouse and a box of After Eights.

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