From Blenheim to Kyiv: In the Footsteps of Marlborough

The historical backdrop of Blenheim Palace is perfect for today’s gathering of the European Political Community. The property was famously given to John Churchill, the 1st Duke of Marlborough, by Queen Anne for his decisive victory at the Battle of Blenheim in 1704. However, it can be argued that Marlborough’s greatest achievement wasn’t on the battlefield, but in the creation of the Grand Alliance of Britain, the Dutch Republic, the Holy Roman Empire, and other states united against Louis XIV’s expansionist France. The Treaty of Utrecht in 1713 was the high point for Marlborough’s Grand Alliance and demonstrated the importance of achieving strategic objectives and maintaining European balance through battlefield success and robust diplomacy. Sir Keir Starmer should draw inspiration from Marlborough’s political skill by trying to rejuvenate the European coalition against Putin.

The Western Alliance against Putin has had considerable success, the main one being Ukraine remaining an independent nation-state. Much of this is due to Ukrainian bravery and leadership, but the Western alliance has helped repel Russian forces for over two years, placing economic and military pressure on Russia. Comprehensive sanctions have targeted various sectors of the Russian economy, particularly the energy sector. Financial isolation, asset freezes, and rising inflation have further strained Russia’s economic stability.

Militarily, Russia faces significant challenges, including substantial casualties, equipment losses, logistical issues, and internal dissent. Ukrainian forces, bolstered by Western support, have effectively adapted their tactics, while cyber and electronic warfare disrupt Russian communications and command structures. The EU and NATO have strengthened and expanded, countering Putin’s objectives of weakening Western unity. Increased defence spending, the inclusion of new NATO members like Finland and Sweden, and unprecedented EU unity in sanctions and support for Ukraine highlight the effectiveness of collective Western action.

However, the alliance is under pressure from right-wing populists like Viktor Orban, Donald Trump, Nigel Farage, and Marine Le Pen, who undermine collective efforts and democratic values. They need to be countered by promoting unity, democratic principles, and a commitment to collective security.

Sir Keir Starmer is ideally positioned to lead Western opposition against Putin due to his parliamentary majority, providing strong domestic support. Compared to many other European nations, UK populists are relatively weaker, allowing Starmer to focus on unifying and reinforcing a cohesive Western alliance against Russian aggression. Starmer needs to reinvigorate the alliance by building on four pillars in which the alliance has already found success:

1. Continued and coordinated sanctions targeting Russia’s economic foundations, particularly in energy and technology.
2. Ongoing and increasing military aid to Ukraine, including advanced weaponry, training, and intelligence support.
3. Ensuring aligned diplomatic stances and policy implementations among participating nations.
4. Developing a comprehensive, long-term strategy that includes both direct military engagements and economic and diplomatic measures to weaken Russia over time.

But the biggest issue for Starmer will be preparing for potential changes in U.S. political support. If Donald Trump is re-elected, as seems likely, and withdraws American support for Ukraine, a strong, independent European defensive alliance will be essential. Europe must demonstrate its capability to maintain security and uphold democratic values independently.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. has provided approximately $113 billion in aid. The UK’s support amounts to £12.5 billion ($16.4 billion), and the EU and its member states have committed close to $117 billion (€107 billion). If the U.S. pulls out, Europe’s assistance will need to double to cover the deficit, a challenging but achievable task. Even more challenging will be a change of mindset. Europe will have to stand on its own two feet. It will have to provide its own leadership mechanisms and geopolitical understanding, which have been outsourced to the US for the last 50 years or more. This will be the greatest challenge.

Sir Keir Starmer, by embracing the spirit of strategic alliances and robust diplomacy, has the chance to lead a renewed coalition that not only resists aggression but also champions democratic values and stability. The gathering at Blenheim Palace has to be more than symbolic; it needs to be a call to action. Europe must unite, innovate, and lead from within to secure a future where peace and democracy prevail.

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