From Chavez to Trump: autocrats in disguise

Autocracy disguised as democracy is the new normal. It’s a well-trodden path. But not all autocrats are the same. Some are more autocratic than others. It depends on how much resistance they meet from the institutions they seek to subvert.

But they have this much in common: they’re all democratically elected; they mostly sing from the same hymn sheet; and they all use the power they’ve been granted as a means to a very specific end: seizing it and keeping it.

Autocracy is politically colourless. It’s a moral wasteland that stretches in a wide arc from far Left to far Right: examples include the late Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, Hungary’s Viktor Orban, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan and, now, Donald Trump. The US President will have a harder time than the others. America is a tougher nut to crack.

But he’s working at it. Trump’s economically illiterate imposition of tariffs on every nation in the world, from China to islands inhabited only by penguins, is a spectacular example. He has used emergency powers granted to the President, but usually only invoked in wartime, to bypass Congress and throw an outsize grenade into the world economy system.

The autocrat in the White House is bent on turning the most powerful, the most connected trading nation in the world into an autarky: a self-sufficient country ring-fenced against the outside world, typical of nationalist movements and African socialists like the late Julius Nyerere. And damn the consequences.

The autocrat’s instruction manual is not set in stone. But it offers basic, step-by-step pointers. The first, the cardinal rule, is (at first) graciously accept the outcome of elections – unless you lose. To become a successful autocrat you need to persuade voters that you’re a bona fide democrat.

Would be autocrats have a menu of tried and tested to-do options. They can mix and match these depending on circumstances. Autocracy is a copycat racket. Kevin Roberts, author of the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, the American hard- Right’s wish list for the Trump presidency, has described Hungary “not just as a model for modern statecraft, but  the  model”.

First, breed outrage by driving a wedge between social groups: the people versus the elite, bad judges, the swamp, the deep state. Next, make things sound worse than they are. The country’s in a mess. It needs rescuing. Third, claim foreign enemies have allies at home. Spread fear. Immigrants are obvious culprits.

Having prepared the soil, you can then quietly undermine between elections those bits of the democratic process that demand accountability: the judiciary, law firms, the press, liberal universities, political opposition, intellectuals, ordinary citizens who kick up a fuss.

An important consequence of this strategy is that elections become less important than what goes on between them. By the time the next one comes round, the institutions that act as the guardrails of democracy and guardians of the rights of ordinary people have been hollowed out.

This gives you the breathing space to perpetuate your hold on power, crack down on your enemies, enrich yourself and reward your cronies. Like the eponymous frog slowly boiled alive in tepid water that is gradually heated, by the time voters catch on, it’s too late.

Being a successful autocrat in a democracy is not easy. It takes talent, persistence, personal charisma and a silver tongue. Mood music is key. Autocracy invariably plays out on a big stage with larger-than-life characters and catchy slogans topping the bill. Democracy is a hard grind, boring. Autocracy must entertain. Song and dance is part of the gig.

Plausible deniability is important. In order to persuade people that what they see is what they want but not necessarily what they’ll get you need to blur that boundary between truth and lies. If voters no longer know who are what to believe they are more likely to believe anything – or nothing.

Moises Naim, writer, former Venezuelan Minister of Trade and Carnegie scholar says stealth, as opposed to brute force, defines the slide from democracy to a social media autocracy. “It doesn’t happen one day with one event. It happens as a process in which a lot of small things, some of them invisible to the naked eye.”

In this process those at the top slowly take control, either directly or indirectly, of the checks and balances designed to defend democracy and curtail the executive: the courts, the media, those with a voice.

This is what Chavez did and it’s what Orban and Erdogan are doing – witness the recent arrest of Istanbul’s mayor, a leading contender for Turkey’s 2028 elections. And so now is Trump.

In this power grab by stealth a veneer of legitimacy is important. When Trump hints that he may run for a third term (which is prohibited by the Constitution under the 22 nd Amendment) and that he’s “not joking”, he was careful to say that there are lawful “methods” of doing so.

You don’t need to be a bush ranger to see that their footprints follow the same trajectory. Sack judges, civil servants and generals. Appoint ideologically friendly allies to key posts. Close down universities or threaten to withdraw funding if they don’t dance to your tune. Criminalise your opponents. Pardon your supporters convicted of crimes. Discredit experts. Delegitimise the mainstream media.

This new order is defined not by friendship or alliances but by loyalty and hierarchy. In this playbook great powers with a single, dominating figure at the top, once again run the world.

Trade is a weapon. International institutions don’t matter. Everything is transactional. International affairs and diplomacy – the process of making war or peace – becomes personal dependant on the whims of one man.

Not everything autocracies do are stupid or incoherent. Trump’s demand that America’s allies stump up their fair share of Nato’s defence costs was a long-overdue correction. Reshoring industries from China is a sound idea. Chavez did initially help the poor.  But as he accrued power this soon gave way to corruption and brutality.

What matters is that the process by which decisions are arrived at in a state governed by the rule of law becomes corrupted. And that, in turn, leads to authoritarianism and illegality – and, inevitably corruption.

This fight-club mentality has now reached the Oval Office. It encourages others to behave with similar impunity. This inevitably makes the world less safe. Benyamin Netanyahu in Israel is a case in point.

This analysis will offend those who fervently believe that Trump’s way of doing things is justified because America and the world have been wrecked by the postwar liberal order. Criticising Trump is a lefty preoccupation. The snowflakes must be purged for the greater good.

But how will they feel when the boot is on the other foot? Because next time they might get a Chavez, not a Trump.

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