Get well, Boris. Your country needs you

At this nadir in our national fortunes, the British people badly needs the Prime Minister to get better. His doctors and nurses at St Thomas’s are doing their best — and they are among the best respiratory teams in the world. All that the rest of us can do is to pray for him. Only now that the Prime Minister’s life hangs by a thread, perhaps, do we realise how much that life means to us. Life is always precious. Sometimes, though, it is cut short. He is in God’s hands, as we all are.

If we were still a Christian country, as we still were when Spanish Flu laid Lloyd George low for a while just a century ago, we would be on our knees, imploring the Almighty to preserve the life of Boris Johnson: “And deliver us from evil.” When the Black Death ravaged the land in the reign of Edward III, we would have prayed to the Virgin to intercede for him: “Holy Mary, Mother of God, pray for us sinners, now and at the hour of our death.” Not a few of us still do.

Today, when we are just as likely to belong to other faiths, or to none, there is no one prayer or even hymn that unites the whole nation. We turn more often to secular poetry and music. The Queen did her best on Sunday, evoking the wartime song: “We’ll meet again.” Yesterday, when Downing Street was still insisting that he was “in charge of the Government”, I wrote here : “If he wants to meet his monarch rather than his Maker, he needs time off to recover.” Last night he was admitted to intensive care and, belatedly, handed over the reins to Dominic Raab, his de facto deputy. Now he is fighting for his life.

Those who cannot pray can at least hope for the Prime Minister to recover. What are his chances? Answers can be found buried in the ICNARC report on Covid-19, which analyses data from all cases admitted to intensive care up to April 3. The report shows that while just over 50 per cent of all patients admitted to ICU with Covid-19 have died, Boris Johnson’s chances may still be better than that. As far as we know, he has so far received only basic respiratory support. The outcome for this subgroup is good: 83.8 per cent were discharged alive from critical care.

Other factors, however, are less favourable. Among patients in his age group (50-69), 54.2 per cent were discharged alive. Men are more likely to die than women: 52.2 per cent compared to 44.6 per cent. Of those with a high BMI (body mass index) of over 30, only 42.4 per cent recovered. Just over a year ago, when he last publicly discussed his weight, that included Boris Johnson.  

In his favour, we can be confident that the staff of St Thomas’s and indeed the whole NHS, conscious that the eyes of the world are upon them, are pulling out all the stops to save the Prime Minister’s life. President Trump’s offer of help from three US drugs companies for the man he called “my good friend” and “an incredible guy” was no doubt well-meant, but it is most unlikely that the British medical team would allow experimental treatments to be used in this case.

If the Prime Minister’s condition continues to deteriorate, the Government and the country must prepare for the worst. What is the constitutional position? We are in uncharted waters here: no Prime Minister has died in office since Palmerston in 1865. (He succumbed to a “violent fever” at the age of 80.) Indeed, it is a tribute to modern medicine that, while several incumbents died suddenly during the early 19th century, since 1865 all those who became terminally ill in office — Campbell-Bannerman, Bonar Law and Neville Chamberlain — were able to resign, leaving time for an orderly succession. Churchill, Eden, Macmillan and Wilson also resigned due to ill-health, but survived.

Such a resignation is unlikely in the present case. And so, in the worst case, the Cabinet would have to choose an acting Prime Minister until a permanent successor could be chosen. Dominic Raab, who as First Secretary of State is now deputising for Boris Johnson, is the obvious candidate for that role, but not necessarily the most likely to be elected by MPs and party members. A leadership election in the midst of a pandemic is unthinkable; it would probably have to be postponed until at least the summer. That would give Raab a chance to make more of an impact than he has done hitherto as Foreign Secretary. As was argued here yesterday, however, a triumvirate including the two Chancellors (of the Exchequer and the Duchy), Rishi Sunak and Michael Gove, would in practice run the country. Raab is still too inexperienced and lacking in authority to fill Boris’s shoes yet.

For the moment, however, there is no vacancy. The Prime Minister is still very much alive and, we must hope, kicking. He is surrounded by doctors and nurses in protective garb; family and friends are not allowed near him. Michael Gove this morning confirmed that he is still not on a ventilator, but has received “some oxygen support”. This is encouraging news: it suggests that his condition may have stabilised as a result of the intensive care treatment. To reiterate: as long as he is not receiving advanced respiratory support, including invasive ventilation, his chances of recovery are good. Is it too much to hope that Downing Street, which has been less than transparent about his condition since he contracted coronavirus, will now issue regular bulletins to keep the nation updated as well as ministers? We have Michael Gove’s assurance that it will.

Britain, like many other countries, has been badly shaken by the pandemic. That the life of our recently elected Prime Minister should be in such peril has come as a body blow. The gravity of our predicament is now clear for all to see — even those who value wealth more than health. Yet Boris is a bruiser, a man who has bounced back before. He is down, but by no means out. Not only here but across the globe, many millions are rooting for him. Other countries in Europe are beginning to plan for the post-pandemic period. With the right leadership, our nation, too, could emerge stronger and more confident from this time of trial. Will that leadership come from the present Prime Minister? Let us hope so. For all his faults, he has a deep love for this country, the love that makes undaunted the final sacrifice.