Grant asylum to defecting Russian soldiers

Putin’s invasion has ground to a halt because of poor planning, faulty logistics, and incredibly strong Ukrainian resistance. The morale of the Russian army is at rock bottom and there is a real opportunity to undermine it further by granting asylum in the West to Russian soldiers and airmen who abandon their illegal invasion.

There are many signs that significant quantities of Russian troops might well be enticed by the prospect of a new life in the West. About one thousand have surrendered already. Many have claimed that they were duped by Putin’s regime.

One Russian officer In Ukrainian custody admitted: “Frankly speaking, they tricked us. Everything we were told was a fake. I would tell my guys to leave Ukrainian territory. We’ve got families and children. I think 90% of us would agree to go home.” Maxim, a fighter-bomber pilot, said “I know in my unit, they are totally against it. They have many relatives and friends [in Ukraine], and they were told it was an operation localised to [Donetsk], and not an attack on the whole country. My division was totally against it.”

Many similar statements are circulating on social media. Other soldiers now in Ukrainian custody have insisted that they will be killed if they return home. A reconnaissance officer called Vladimir said: “I want to tell our commander-in-chief to stop terror acts in Ukraine because when we come back we’ll rise against him.” The vast bulk of Russian soldiers are not bad men. They’ve just been given appalling orders by the regime. The ones who have spoken out against the invasion are indeed in danger of being killed by Putin’s regime.

Russian soldiers are defecting, some of them even bringing tanks and other equipment with them. The Ukrainians have an established programme to encourage such defections. For example, tank crewman Misha was paid $10,000 for bringing his tank and was offered Ukrainian citizenship.

But Russian soldiers aren’t sure who will win the war and they know that defectors who remain in Ukraine after a Putin victory are likely to be executed. The prospect of life in a Western country, with family joining in due course, would be much more likely to trigger significant numbers of defections.

For defection to become widespread, the soldiers and pilots defecting need to be offered a certain path to freedom in the West rather than the possible prospect of execution in Russia.

Russian soldiers who have voluntarily left Ukraine for a Western country would no longer by bound by Geneva Convention restrictions and will be able to take a full role in communications efforts aimed at further undermining the morale of remaining Russian soldiers and Russian citizens in general.

This is a relatively low risk policy option for the West. Even in the highly unlikely event that all of Putin’s remaining army of some 120,000 decided to claim asylum, that number is easily absorbable. Twenty countries could take 6,000 each. Of course, numbers will be much smaller, but even a few hundred defections would further undermine Putin’s army’s morale and cause commanders to be nervous of their men’s loyalty.

Some support will be needed to help the soldiers, sailors and airmen relocate, lean a new language and find a job. But these are able-bodied, trained young people who should be able to find employment relatively easily.

The programme should be kicked off by offering asylum to a number of existing defectors, then heavily publicising those individual cases. The concept is gaining popularity. After visiting Kyiv, the Czech Prime Minister, Andrej Babiš proposed that EU countries should start an asylum programme. Charles Michel, the European Council President, has just voiced his support, calling it “a valuable idea that should be pursued”.  But could Britain not beat the EU to it by bringing in the first Russian soldiers?

It is said that a key motivation for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is Russia’s population decline, projected by the Kremlin itself to reduce from 145 million today to 113 million in 2050. Forcing Ukraine’s 44 million population into Russia would have transformed those numbers. But the invasion in practice is having the opposite effect. More than 200,000 of its best and brightest have already abandoned Russia. Putin would not be happy if a chunk of his army were to follow.

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