Has the British Government failed in its response to Covid-19?

There are lies, damned lies and Covid-19 statistics. More precisely: the figures do not lie, but they are incomplete, incompatible and inconclusive. Above all, they require a great deal of interpretation before reliable comparisons between countries can be attempted.

With all these necessary and valid caveats, the fact remains that, as of Tuesday, more people are recorded as having died of coronavirus in the UK than any other country in Europe. This fact has, rightly, taken the nation aback — although it was predictable and predicted. But how far is the Government to blame?

In one sense it is, of course. Governments take credit for all kinds of things that are nothing to do with politics, so they must take responsibility when things go wrong too. Public health is determined by long-term factors, not all of which are easily influenced, but the fact that Britain has the worst obesity problem in Europe is a policy failure that has now come back to haunt us. Dame Angela Maclean, the Chief Scientific Adviser to the MoD, did not mince her words about the calamitous impact of obesity at Tuesday’s Downing Street press conference. What was required, she said, was not a diet, but a complete change of lifestyle: “I understand that’s a really difficult thing to do, but under all circumstances — pandemic or no pandemic — it’s better not to be obese.” Dame Angela’s strictures ought to be uncomfortable reading not only for ministers, but also those in the junk food business who have done well out of our unhealthy relationship with eating.

By the same token, the failure of several Continental countries to deter smoking is also bound to have had an impact on their Covid-19 mortality rates. Hygiene, especially in care homes, is another factor where stricter regulation may make a difference. Health spending per capita, the structure of health services, the presence of pharmaceutical industries or world-class universities: these and many other factors may all make a difference to outcomes, but to an as yet indeterminate extent.

Some factors are largely beyond state control: the age, size and shape of families or households and, perhaps most importantly, population density. But it is the duty of the state to take account of all these facts in deciding the balance of risk. If parts of Britain were known to be especially vulnerable, should action have been taken sooner? How important has been the impact of the NHS focus on Covid-19 on deaths from other causes? We do not know yet and it is in any case too soon for a postmortem.

Along with the known unknowns, there are still almost certainly unknown unknowns. The expert consensus seems to be that the only fair comparative measure, whenever it is available, will be excess deaths divided by population. At present, estimates of excess mortality vary considerably. One published today puts the total for the UK at 55,000, almost double the official  figure. Some other countries are slower than the UK in collecting data. Transparency is hard to come by when statistics are politically sensitive.

Criticism is salutary, but as a people we should keep a sense of proportion. Terrible as the human impact of the pandemic is for every family affected, we do seem to have prevented the worst — so far. Those who point to this less than catastrophic outcome in order to claim that Covid-19 is no more dangerous than flu are forgetting that social distancing has undoubtedly reduced the death toll, even in countries that have adopted less stringent restrictions. The British lockdown has been less severe than that of Italy, for instance. Each country has reacted in accordance with its own cultural traditions. Leadership in a pandemic is not an exact science, but rather more like navigating a vessel through a storm. It matters a lot whether you are captaining a modern liner or a leaky old tub.

So is Alastair Campbell (of this parish) correct to claim that the Government’s handling of Covid-19 has been nothing short of a “national catastrophe”? Perhaps he is; but it is too soon to say. What we can be sure of is that the Prime Minister, who is so far the only world leader to have recovered from the virus at its most malevolent, has earned the confidence not only of the Cabinet, but of the country too.  

On Sunday Boris Johnson will present a map to lead us out of the labyrinth of lockdown. Whether he will succeed depends on the rest of us continuing to exercise self-discipline by social distancing. Covid-19 is no Minotaur to be slain, but it is indeed monstrous in the sense that it is unique. We shall need all the ingenuity of Daedalus as well as the heroism of Theseus if we are to overcome this pandemic. And we shall stand a better chance of a victory that is not Pyrrhic if we are as united as possible in our attitudes and actions.