Has the Prime Minister misled Parliament over statistics?

Boris Johnson’s assertion to Parliament on Monday 31 January that his Government had cut crime “by 14%” between September 2019 and 2021 was misleading, the head of the UK Statistics Authority, Sir David Norgrove, has said. This is yet another rap across the prime ministerial knuckles for his selective presentation of data to MPs.

Mr Johnson excluded any reference to the fact that in the same period fraud and computer misuse had increased by 47%.

When this category of crime is included, the Crime Survey of England and Wales estimates that overall, crime rose by 14% over the same period.

A Home Office press release crediting the Prime Minister’s “Beating Crime Plan” was likewise “misleading”, said Sir David Norgrove, because it too excluded the figures for fraud and computer misuse.

The effect of this exclusion was “to give a positive picture of trends in crime in England and Wales” since June 2019. Mr Johnson took office a month later.

Sir David said that in so far as there was a fall in crime other than fraud and computer misuse, it was more likely due to the pandemic (rather than to any Government action), since the fall coincided with lockdown and Covid restrictions, as did the rise in fraud and computer crime.

Sir David said:  “The ONS assessment… is that the pandemic and associated restrictions were the main drivers of recent trends in the relevant types of crime.”

Mr Johnson made his misleading claim to Parliament while fending off allegations from Opposition MPs that he had also misled Parliament with his assurances that he had not known parties were being held in No 10 in breach of lockdown rules.

This is not the first time the Prime Minister has played fast and loose with statistics to Parliament.

On climate change: on 5 February 2020 he told MPs “We have cut CO2 emissions in this country since 2010, on 1990 levels, by 42%. That is an astonishing achievement, and at the same time, the economy has grown by 73%, thanks to free-market, dynamic, one-nation Conservatism. That is our approach.”

In fact, official statistics show that since 2010, CO2 emissions had decreased, not by 42% but by 27% (2010-2018).

On child poverty: on 17 June 2020, Mr Johnson claimed both absolute poverty and relative poverty had “declined under this Government”. While absolute poverty had declined, relative poverty had increased by 900,000 between 2009-10 and 2018-19.

In May 2021, he also told MPs: “We are… seeing fewer households now with children in poverty than 10 years ago, but I perfectly accept that there is more to be done.”

Responding to a “number of concerns… raised to us regarding the Prime Minister’s use of statistics on child poverty” over the previous year, the UK Office for Statistics Regulation said:

“In each case, we have brought this to the attention of the briefing team in No 10. Further concerns were raised to us following Prime Minister’s Questions on 26 May, where the Prime Minister said that ‘We are also seeing fewer households now with children in poverty than 10 years ago.’

“As the Office for Statistics Regulation highlighted last year in a blog and more recently in our review of income-based poverty statistics, measuring poverty is complicated and different measures tell different parts of the story.

“We are pleased to see some improvement in the way official statistics on child poverty are referred to in these statements. However, it would help aid public understanding if statements concerning child poverty were clear about which measure is being referred to, particularly where other measures present a different trend.”

On employment: On 18 January 2022, Mr Johnson told MPs: “We now have 420,000 more people in employment than there were before the pandemic began.”

As with his misleading crime statistics, the Prime Minister once again excluded a statistic that reversed the picture: in this case, the fall in the number of self-employed.

When that statistic is included, as data from the Office for National Statistics shows, the total number of people in paid work (i.e. employees and self-employed) is actually about 600,000 below the level just prior to the pandemic.

On crime, child poverty, climate change and employment, the Prime Minister has been selective and misleading in his use of statistics.

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