How Vladimir Putin plans to rule Russia for longer than Stalin 

Those few experts predicting that Vladimir Putin would step down as President of Russia, after his current term ends in 2024, might have been surprised when he opened up the possibility this week that he intends to remain in office for another two terms, taking him to 2036. 

A process of constitutional reform in Russia began in January, after Putin suggested that the country’s constitution, or Supreme Law, should be changed. The President, along with a working group of experts, suggested a number of amendments, which then need to be approved by both Houses of Parliament, and signed off by Putin. The amendments will then be put to a vote in a nation-wide referendum that is already scheduled for April 22. 

While reviewing the constitutional reforms proposed by Putin and the working group, the Russian State Duma, the lower House of Parliament, has begun discussing an amendment which would either “zero” (i.e. cancel) the President’s previous terms or cancel the presidential term limit. The proposal was introduced by Valentina Tereshkova, a deputy of Putin’s United Russia party and the first woman to go into space. 

Putin turned up at the plenary session on March 10 “unexpectedly”, saying in his speech that while he opposed the removal of term limits, he would support the proposed amendment to zero both of his previous terms if it was upheld in a referendum and was deemed legitimate by the Russian Constitutional Court. Noting that “stability should be the priority,” Putin ended his remarks with a reassurance that, in the end, the decision would be left in the hands of voting Russians. The Duma approved the amendment.

The Constitutional Court will most likely approve the move, paving the way for Putin to stand again in 2024 and be allowed another two terms — 12 more years. This would bring his total rule to 36 years, seven years longer than Joseph Stalin’s rule of the former USSR. 

What were the last few weeks all about? Since the constitutional change process began in January, analysts have been trying to guess whether Putin would try to stay on as president or find a successor in a similar way to what happened in 2008 with Dmitry Medvedev. There were suggestions that he could become the head of the State Council, an advisory body with growing power, but he has rejected this. Observers have also wondered if he would simply rule from behind the scenes.

The events on March 10 have provided some clues about what comes next. There is now a legal avenue for Putin to stay in power, and the search for a suitable successor can be put on hold.  Putin has yet to confirm he will even put his name on the ballot in 2024, stoking the intrigue with a “Let’s see” quip that makes it clear the decision is all his.

Stability is Putin’s priority. This applies to his foreign policy goals as much as to his mission of making Russia a world-class power. He believes that “calm development of the country” is the most important goal right now, and that only “when the country becomes more confident and gets richer” can it have a change of government. As pointed out by the former Chief Economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Sergei Guriev, it is unfortunate that Putin does not realise that Russia is unlikely to become richer without becoming a democracy. 

In the end, the vote on April 22 is being turned into a plebiscite on Putin’s rule. The other amendments to the Constitution are not so important now. People will be presented with the choice of more Putin and more stability, or not, and the Kremlin will be working hard to get a high turnout to legitimise the continuation of Putin’s rule for many years to come.