If the Omicron variant is as bad as scientists fear, we must prepare for the worst
(Alamy)
In a recent article for Bloomberg about employment, inflation and the pandemic, the Stanford-based British historian Niall Ferguson writes: “Somewhere out there may lurk what I grimly call the ‘Omega variant’ of SARS-CoV-2: vaccine-evading, even more contagious than Delta, equally or more deadly. According to the medical scientists I read and talk to — notably Nicholas Christakis and Larry Brilliant — the probability of this nightmare scenario is very low, but it is not zero.”
Not zero. Indeed, Professor, it may already have happened. Today the headlines are full of a new variant, known not as Omega but as “Omicron” (another Greek letter), which has already caused flights to the UK from six countries in southern Africa to be halted. The Omicron variant has “deeply concerned” scientists, politicians and officials at the Health Security Agency because it is spreading fast across South Africa, a country thought to have developed high levels of immunity.
Sajid Javid, the Health Secretary, warned that early indications suggest the Omicron variant is even more transmissible than the Delta variant which arrived from India last summer and “the vaccines that we currently have may be less effective against it”. A scientist from Durban, Richard Lessells, explained that the Omicron variant “might have not just enhanced transmissibility… but might also be able to get round parts of the immune system.”
These are early days in the study of this variant and no cases have yet been detected here, but the British authorities are taking no chances. From noon today only British and Irish visitors from the region in which the Omicron variant is likely to have spread will be allowed to enter and they will be quarantined. It is nevertheless possible that Omicron carriers have already unwittingly entered the country. Normally several hundred visitors arrive here daily from South Africa and its neighbours. Anyone who has arrived in the last ten days has been asked to take PCR tests, but we don’t yet know how reliably these tests will detect the new variant.
What is the worst case scenario? If the Omicron variant is already spreading undetected among us, the scientists will need to consider modifying the vaccines to deal with its “unusual constellation of mutations” — described by an Imperial College virologist as a “horrific spike profile”. This process could take weeks rather than months, but that would give the variant time to establish itself across the population.
Combined with the colder weather and other pressures on the NHS, we could be on the verge of a new wave of Covid. It is unlikely to cause such high levels of mortality as the wave triggered by the Alpha (or Kent) variant last winter, because treatments for Covid have improved dramatically since then. But hospitals are still operating below capacity due to isolating staff away from work and could nevertheless struggle to cope with large numbers of Covid patients.
What this means is that the NHS must redouble its efforts to get the booster jab into older and more vulnerable people’s arms before we are hit by the Omicron variant. With at least 95 per cent immunity so far, those who have had triple jabs stand the best chance of resisting Omicron too. The Government should simultaneously mount a new campaign to persuade those who are still vaccine-reluctant to get their first jab. This will reduce the pool of unvaccinated people — still around 15 per cent — among whom the Omicron variant could spread most easily. In this scenario, the pharmaceutical industry would need to devote large-scale resources to adapting the vaccines already in use as quickly as possible.
The worst may not happen. Omicron may turn out not to be so very new. But we cannot afford to be complacent. The public has decided that the pandemic is, to all intents and purposes, already over. But the seven-day average for new cases in the UK is still more than 42,000, with 125 deaths a day. The economy and society are not yet back to normal; indeed, both may have been permanently altered, both by Covid itself and the counter-measures it has necessitated. Nobody is yet talking about a new lockdown in the UK, but elsewhere in Europe they are already happening.
The Prime Minister has been widely criticised from all sides for various aspects of the response to the pandemic, but his instincts have consistently been to minimise the disruption to the economy and to everyday life. We can be very confident that, while following the scientific consensus, he will not allow Whitehall to overreact to the Omicron variant. If nevertheless the Government were to decide to reimpose social distancing, compulsory mask-wearing and other restrictions, perhaps including additional ones for those who refuse to be vaccinated, then the vast majority of the country would surely accept the new reality with a good grace. The violent reaction to new Covid measures in some European cities this week has no place here in Britain. The Omicron variant is potentially lethal. Let us hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
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