No victory in Gaza, but a chance for peace

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No victory in Gaza, but a chance for peace

Fireworks were let off all over London and elsewhere this week to celebrate what pro-Palestinian activists consider a victory over Israel. But there will be few in the Middle East who will see the cease-fire in Gaza for anything other than what it is: no victory for anyone, an end of this phase of conflict rather than the dawn of peace. But it is, at least, a rightful relief for the innocents caught in the firestorm, from hostages and their families to those shattered lives in Gaza.

There are no winners. Certainly not Netanyahu, who set out to avenge the wicked horror of October 7th 2023 by eliminating Hamas, and securing the hostages release by force. Ignoring those who warned that these aims were unlikely to be achieved, he has failed in both. US Secretary of State Blinken, in the lead up to the ceasefire announcement, said that their assessment is that Hamas has recruited almost as many fighters as it has lost, as Israel was warned, and Hamas still controls the negotiated release of hostages.

But Hamas is no winner either, despite its place at today’s table, with the mortality of tens of thousands and the apocalyptic ruin of Gaza laid firmly at its door from its instigation of the present conflict. It will pay a price too.

As always, its is easier to identify the losers, because they are always the same: the poor, the women and children, the innocent.

It is now vital that this pause in the current conflict, if it is to be long lasting and begin to consolidate into peace, must address the failures of the past which laid the foundations of October 7th and all that followed. President Biden spoke this week that the ceasefire evidenced his determination, and admonition to others to “never give up”. It may be worth half a cheer for today, but it highlights the consequences of giving up in the past.

Collectively the world gave up on Oslo, on Camp David, after the Intifada, and after John Kerry in 2014. We all gave up when either the Palestinian or Israeli leadership once more walked away and said it was all too difficult. If we remember what we said on October 7th last year, that all was now changed and that we would never go back to October 6th with an illusory ”status quo” and false sense of equilibrium, then the underlying causes can no longer be ignored and must be tackled with urgency.

There is a phrase in football, “second ball”, which refers to the importance of winning and controlling not a first contact, but the second, if a long ball has bounced free. The second ball here must be seized in a regional landscape changed by the events of the 470 days before the ceasefire begins on Sunday.

I have argued that a series of discussions need to be happening in parallel to the talks on ceasefire, as each has a relevance for the other. I do not think it possible to discuss ceasefire without some consideration of civil administration in Gaza immediately after. Discussion of the “day after” must also look ahead to how a democratic transition will be handled, in order to give Palestinians the freedom to choose who will govern their territory, and if its status will be as an independent state, or not. Once you are in this space, the bouncing ball is being pursued as much by those who want no such Palestinian control or state at all, because they want Gaza to be re-occupied by Israel, and re-settled by nationalists, as by rival groups amongst the Palestinian people.

There must be no crossing of fingers over the situation in the West Bank and Jerusalem. The horror of Gaza may have contributed to those expected flashpoints, bad as they are, not being worse, but they will ignite if clashes between nationalistic Jewish settlers and Palestinians continue, and threats by extremists to reduce the religious diversity of the Holy Sites in Jerusalem are not contained.

And as this is being considered, those benefactors whose finance will be essential for the reconstruction of Gaza will also be on the pitch, or rather just on the touchline. They are surely not going to commit the billions of dollars needed to rebuild if there is any risk that it will in future be subject to the similar bombing destruction of 40,000 locations in the 360 square miles of Gaza that we have just seen.

It seems to me that we cannot wait for each one to be tackled and settled with the next undecided. We would merely be catching our breath before the next, even more cataclysmic war. It is time for the deals, or series of deals, involving Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, new leadership in Israel and Palestine, Gulf States, Turkey and perhaps even Iran to be worked out and not walked away from.

If only there were a world leader available committed to the art of the deal, and able to seize the moment.

 

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Member ratings
  • Well argued: 63%
  • Interesting points: 69%
  • Agree with arguments: 61%
19 ratings - view all

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