On the doorstep, I've discovered what voters really care about in local elections. And it's not what the pundits imagine.

Local election analysis is a tricky business. It is true that national politics has an effect on local elections – that was made all too clear by the huge number of people who ranted about Brexit when I knocked on their doors as a Conservative Party canvasser. There is anger, frustration, and in some cases despair out there in the country, and many people did indeed vote to send a message to Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn.

But that’s not the whole story. National issues do not explain why there have been such different results in places that are alike. Why did the Labour Party lose in Bolsover but gain in Bassetlaw? These are neighbouring seats with very similar demographics and political make-ups, they even saw similar results in the EU referendum. How did Conservatives – being punished by Brexit voters across the country – manage to hold on in Newark & Sherwood, Broxtowe and Derbyshire Dales, and make gains in places like North East Lincolnshire, Boston and Derby?

The answer is that these are local elections, and there are differences in local politics that simply cannot be explained by national analysis.

Candidates matter. The majority of people want a local candidate who lives in their ward – and even coming from the next town over (still in the same council area) is not received well. This is because people want their representatives to understand the needs of their specific areas.

Campaigns matter. Putting the work in can make all the difference, especially in these interesting times where party loyalty has been eroded, and, let’s face it, most people don’t really like any political party. If candidates start 12 months out and really work their patch – knocking, delivering, and doing everything right – they reap the rewards. If they don’t, they are vulnerable. If they  don’t and their opposition does – they will almost certainly lose.

Issues matter. Different areas have issues in common: things like bins, parking and town centres will come up on the doorstep practically anywhere in the country you knock. But there are intricacies too – it could be house building, fracking, a closed community centre, or a council scandal. How local parties respond to these local issues can make all the difference.
These little local nuances are often ill-considered by national pundits. The results are distilled into a single national story, with the only nod to difference an attempt to draw a crude north-south divide in the results.

But the truth is that there are thousands – yes thousands – of local election stories. This is because there are not only differences by council area, but inside council areas too. During my own campaigning, I found that many voters who were very angry with May nevertheless went on to vote Conservative – because of the local candidate, campaign and issues.

Here in Bassetlaw, where I campaign for the Conservative Party, voters are pretty much equally unhappy with the two big parties. When I knock on doors I hear that they are not happy with how the Conservatives have handled Brexit, and they are not happy with Jeremy Corbyn – full stop.

Before yesterday, 12 of the 48 Bassetlaw District Council seats were held by the Conservatives. Making any gains with the national head-winds would have been very difficult indeed, but it was not inevitable that we would lose seven of those 12 seats. It is fair to say that deselecting sitting councillors and fighting seats with unknown candidates, selecting candidates who live outside of the wards in key seats, and running a lacklustre campaign in most of the seats did not help our fortunes.

Of course if you ask these local losers – in Bassetlaw and further afield – what went wrong, they will tell you that they are victims of the national party’s record. And some of them are; they put their heart and soul not just into this election campaign, but into their areas in the preceding years too. But if you dig a little deeper, you will find candidates on all sides using Brexit, May, Corbyn, or whatever else as cover for their own failings.

I am the last person to defend Theresa May’s record, but it is wrong to try to pin all of the blame on her for these council seat losses. Some of it, yes. But local parties must also be accountable for their failures – and where they’ve had them, their successes too.