Peterborough by-election fails to generate a political earthquake
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Yesterday’s by-election in Peterborough had been billed as another of 2019’s earth-shattering political moments. During the build-up, the insurgent new Brexit Party were overwhelming favourites to win their first seat in Westminster. After all, they faced very favourable conditions. A by-election in a marginal, Leave-voting seat, triggered by the conviction of the sitting Labour MP for perverting the course of justice. A strong candidate in local entrepreneur Mike Greene, pitted against a Labour rival embroiled in an anti-Semitism row the week before polling day. And, most of all, a storming recent performance in the European Parliament elections, where Farage’s party won 31% nationally (and 38% in Peterborough itself).
In the end, however, the favourable winds were not enough; the Brexit Party fell just short, just 683 votes behind Labour. The Brexit Party’s momentum ultimately failed to match Labour’s resources and impressive ground campaign. The Conservative vote was poor when compared to the 2017 general election (21% – down by more than half), but held up better than expected – perhaps helping to deny the Brexit Party victory. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrat vote quadrupled from 2017, albeit only to 12% (Peterborough has never been fertile territory for them). The Lib Dem performance likely contributed to Labour’s decline from 48% in the general election to 31% yesterday, but was not enough to deny them victory – even with a Labour candidate who is not a second referendum advocate.
Although the Brexit Party’s strong second place is an impressive achievement for a party registered just four months ago, silver medals do not tend to create political earthquakes. The political narrative this morning would have been different if the Brexit Party had won. The Labour leadership would be under even more pressure from its MPs to either fully back or fully oppose a second referendum (depending on which faction you speak to). The Conservatives would be in a state of panic, pouring more fuel on the fire in the ongoing leadership contest. In particular, the momentum behind Boris Johnson – seen by many MPs as the only contender capable of neutralising Farage by delivering Brexit – would likely have grown further. Instead, the result of the by-election slightly dampens the sense of political crisis engulfing the two main parties, although that does not mean there is any cause for complacency.
What the Peterborough by-election does do is expose the problems with directly reading across from the recent European elections to Westminster elections. The European elections were almost entirely dominated by Brexit, which benefitted outsider parties with clear messaging. However, in Peterborough, the Brexit question was interspersed with a variety of local issues, which Labour campaigned on heavily. The same was true in the May local elections, and will also be the case in any future general election.
Indeed, it was striking that the Brexit Party picked up far fewer votes in Peterborough in the by-election (9,801) than in the European elections (16,196). Of course, this is partly because the parliamentary constituency of Peterborough does not map neatly onto the Peterborough local authority (where votes were counted in the European elections) – the latter is larger, and encompasses Leave-voting rural areas. But it’s also likely that a minority of voters who had opted for the Brexit Party in a protest vote then returned to their traditional parties for the more practical question of returning a local MP. In the coalition years, this was a perennial problem for UKIP, who often had close second-place finishes in by-elections with their own candidates, but only actually won them when Conservative MPs defected to them.
All this alters the picture of the Brexit Party’s threat to the Conservatives. Rather than replacing the Conservatives as the party of Leave, the effect of the Brexit Party in a general election may well be to split the Leave vote and allow a weakened Labour Party to come in through the middle – particularly if, as in Peterborough, the Brexit Party are seen as genuine contenders rather than a wasted vote. Ironically, if there is a general election before Brexit, votes for the Brexit Party may make Brexit less likely. The leadership contenders will be acutely aware of this – in a tweet this morning, Johnson said, “Conservatives must deliver Brexit by 31st October or we risk Brexit Party votes delivering Corbyn to No10.”
However, the complicating factor is that not every seat in the country is like Peterborough. As the European election results showed, the Conservatives are vulnerable to losing Remain voters as well as Leave voters. Conservative MP Chris Davies is currently facing a recall petition which could result in another by-election – in Brecon and Radnorshire, a Conservative-Lib Dem marginal. A Lib Dem victory there would highlight the fact that the Conservatives are being squeezed by the recent fragmentation of British politics. Failing to deliver Brexit might be political suicide, but delivering it – whether through a deal or No Deal – is not a silver bullet either.
