Putin may behave like an emperor, but he cannot be a Hirohito
After the nuclear bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the Emperor Hirohito gave an unprecedented radio address to the Japanese nation on August 15, 1945. By this stage of the war, Japan had lost its Pacific empire, virtually its entire navy and air force and its army in Manchuria had just been destroyed by a Soviet invasion.
Acknowledging defeat for the first time, the Emperor said that Japan had never intended to “infringe upon the sovereignty of other nations or to embark upon territorial aggrandisement”, but had instead sought “the emancipation of East Asia”. He went on to say that “the war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan’s advantage”, leaving him no choice but to accept the Allied terms (he never mentioned unconditional surrender) to save Japan from “a new and most cruel bomb” and to prevent “the total extinction of human civilisation”.
These words are remarkable not only for their understatement but also for their evasion of any moral responsibility for a war that had cost many millions of lives. In a profoundly militaristic and traditional culture such as that of Imperial Japan, any apology to the victims was unthinkable. (It did, of course, come later.) The only atonement mentioned by the Emperor was to “the hallowed spirits of our imperial ancestors”. The shame of defeat could only be expiated by admitting failure to live up to the glorious past.
I mention all this because in Putin’s Russia the West is faced with a militaristic culture that is very different from Japan’s yet equally alien to our own. It is no less impossible for Putin to admit that his purpose in invading Ukraine was imperial conquest than it was for Hirohito; both pretend that theirs is a war of liberation. Both resort to euphemism to disguise military defeats: just as the war “has not necessarily developed to Japan’s advantage”, so the manifest failure to capture Kyiv is not mentioned by the Kremlin spokesman, who merely states that Russian forces have completed their tasks there and will now concentrate on the Donbas front.
For Russia, the equivalent of Japan’s imperial ancestors are the Soviet heroes of the Great Patriotic War. Unlike Hirohito, who was left with no choice, Putin is not yet ready to admit that by that measure, he has failed miserably. But both leaders seek to aggrandise their aggression into a defence of civilisation. Neither is able to acknowledge any moral responsibility for mass murder.
As I wrote here yesterday, after occupying Japan the Allies decided to put those deemed primarily responsible for the war on trial, but left the Emperor in peace. They acknowledged that Hirohito had been too constrained by the traditions of his office to have prevented or altered the course of the war; indeed, his broadcast of surrender was his only significant intervention. Because he had been a passive rather an active participant in wartime, he remained popular after the defeat — as the Allies acknowledged. Their decision not to depose the Emperor was remarkable for its magnanimity, but also ensured continuity. The Japanese altered their constitution from an authoritarian to a democratic one, yet preserved the appearance of a regime change that was not imposed but came from within.
In the case of Russia, however, the leadership issue is different because the head of state, Vladimir Putin, is politically culpable for the war of aggression and morally culpable for the crimes committed in its wake. The Allies say that he must be held legally responsible in the International Court at The Hague. But they also insist that they do not seek regime change, suggesting that President Biden committed a “gaffe” when he said that Putin “cannot remain in power”. The President himself has clarified his words, saying that he was “expressing moral outrage” rather than calling for regime change.
Indeed he was, and there is no reason why he should not exhort the Russian people to evict their President from the Kremlin. Given that Russia, despite its constitution, is not a real democracy, the only practical ways in which Putin can be removed from power are by a palace coup or a popular uprising. Again, it is legitimate for the Allies to encourage both, not least by refusing to engage in talks with Putin while he is still ordering the butchery and rape of civilians. If Russians genuinely want an exit strategy from Ukraine, removing Putin would be the best way forward. NATO cannot do this for them, but it can offer political incentives.
Above all, NATO leaders should be clear that the nuclear balance and collective security would be greatly enhanced if the Russian deterrent were not in the hands of a commander in chief as unpredictable, mendacious and dangerous as Putin. Russian nuclear doctrine has been restated in recent days by former President Medvedev and the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. According to the latter, “only when there is a threat to the existence of the state in our country” would nuclear weapons be used. Such reassurances would carry more weight if the man who would decide what constituted an existential threat were not Putin. Russians need to know this.
The example of Hirohito shows the value of preserving a degree of regime continuity, even at the expense of requiring full acceptance of moral responsibility, in enabling a militaristic nation to come to terms with its defeat. Japan has remained a democracy dedicated to peace, even if its attitude to past war crimes is imperfect. Russia will never accept regime change unless it emerges from within. For that to happen, defeat on the battlefield is probably necessary but may not be sufficient. Russians must also understand that Putin is an insuperable obstacle to any return to normality. He has forfeited any right to remain in office, even as a figurehead, after the war in Ukraine is over. Putin may behave like an emperor, but he cannot be a Hirohito.
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