Rishi, beware: Boris is down but not out
If politics is show business for ugly people, then Wednesday’s public hearing of the Privileges Committee should have been Boris Johnson’s Oscar -winning performance. I don’t think anyone has seen Johnson more prepared, so across a brief, utterly professional, and frankly un-Boris. In spite of this, his appearance turned out to be more Ealing comedy than Hollywood blockbuster.
As well as enduring a three and a half hour grilling by the Privileges Committee, Johnson was simultaneously leading a rebellion against Sunak’s Windsor Framework in the Commons chamber. This rebellion, however, petered out into the dampest of squibs. Only 22 Conservatives voted against the Government, though another 48 abstained or were excused. Once the Tory benches would have walked across hot coals for Boris; now they can hardly hear Big Dog bark.
When 21 Tory MPs rebelled against Johnson’s Brexit deal on 3rd September 2019, including two former Conservative Chancellors of the Exchequer and Churchill’s grandson, the Conservative whip was withdrawn, meaning that the rebel MPs were effectively chucked out of the parliamentary party. This high political drama was matched with almost hysterical scenes both inside the Commons and out on Parliament square.
The 22 rebels from Tuesday’s vote, who included two former Conservative Prime Ministers and another ex-leader of the party, had a fate far worse than being kicked out of the parliamentary party. No whip was withdrawn. No grandstanding in the Commons; no demonstrations on Parliament Square. Instead, they have been sentenced to irrelevance. For the likes of Johnson, Truss, Duncan Smith, Rees-Mogg and Patel, that really hurts.
Sunak can paint these rebels as an embittered rump of insignificance who cling to a vision of Britain’s past, while he tries to build a country with a future. Outside the parliamentary party, Johnson’s reputation is similarly in tatters. According to fresh polling from YouGov only 21 per cent of Leave voters think Boris Johnson is honest and just 26 per cent of all Conservative voters. It would seem that both electorate and Tory MPs have turned their backs on Johnson.
The PM’s victory looks final, but he has only won a battle; the war has just begun.
The odds are short on the Privileges Committee finding Johnson in contempt of Parliament. His supporters are already painting this as a massive miscarriage of justice by the establishment’s “kangaroo court”. Such a finding will lead to a free vote in the Commons on whether Johnson should be suspended, with a 10 day suspension leading to a potential by-election in Johnson’s Uxbridge and Ruislip constituency. In all probability Johnson would lose and get hoofed out of his seat.
If you listen to the stream of social media and TV monologues from Johnson’s core supporters there seems to be wish, even a will, for exactly this to happen. If Johnson loses his seat he might form a populist party, perhaps even create an alliance with Nigel Farage — although the two men dislike each other intensely. In Italy the Five Star Party had a broad appeal for a few years, though it has now faded. A British version led by Boris could have the effect of taking 10 to 20 per cent off the Conservative vote. It would mean no party on the Right of British politics could hold power for years, perhaps a generation.
At the moment Boris Johnson is standing in the Conservative tent, pissing out, and it’s a major inconvenience for Sunak. However, if he gets kicked out of his Uxbridge seat Boris would be standing outside the tent pissing in, and that’s a disaster for the Tories. Johnson would have no compunction about splitting the right of British politics. So Sunak needs to find a way of handcuffing him to the backbenches, as a comic reminder of the dysfunctional government of the early 2020s. Otherwise, Keir Starmer can start measuring up the curtains for No 10; and his stay will be long.
A Message from TheArticle
We are the only publication that’s committed to covering every angle. We have an important contribution to make, one that’s needed now more than ever, and we need your help to continue publishing throughout these hard economic times. So please, make a donation.
