The British Conservative Party is failing in its duties

The British Conservative Party, to my mind, has two chief and nation-defining duties. It must maintain the unity of the United Kingdom and prevent extremist political factions from taking power. It looks entirely possible that, thanks to decisions made by Conservative governments over the past few years, it will fail spectacularly on both accounts. 

Jeremy Corbyn, as has always been abundantly clear, does not hail from any mainstream Labour Party tradition. His politics are premised on an intense loathing of the liberal/democratic/capitalist, in other words, Western, model of running a human civilisation. So intense is his distaste that he’s prepared to apologise for just about any faction, regardless of how violent, authoritarian or fascistic, that vows to cut the West down to size. Some of those closest to him, such as Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell, have openly spoken in contempt of parliamentary democracy. 

The Conservative Party should have treated his accession to the Labour Party leadership in September 2015 as a unique threat. For the first time in modern political history control of one of Britain’s two great parties of Government had been seized by someone whose commitment to basic liberal-democratic norms was in question. The nature of our first past the post electoral system meant that, should the Conservatives slip-up, a Corbyn Government would become viable. Alas to describe the Tory performance over the past few years as a “slip-up” would be an undeserved mercy. 

It is quite clear that the prospect of a no-deal Brexit offers Corbyn a route to power. Not so long ago the Labour leader was struggling to control his own MPs, incensed by their party’s increasingly institutionalised anti-Semitism, let alone command a Commons majority. Now some veteran Tories, including the likes of former Chancellor Ken Clarke, have said a temporary Corbyn-led Government would be preferable to a no-deal EU exit. The Labour Party is reunited, at least for now, and has acquired a common purpose. Meanwhile, the Conservative Party has been torn apart, losing 22 of its MPs on Tuesday alone. An election this autumn is all but inevitable. 

Admittedly, it looks unlikely Corbyn will be in a position to form a majority Government after a poll, but I have little more of comfort to say. The SNP in Scotland and Liberal Democrats in southern England both look likely to take seats off the Tories. Both parties, being fervently opposed to not just no-deal Brexit but any EU departure, will surely not prop up the Conservatives. But they could facilitate a Labour Government. 

For the moment the Liberal Democrats are ruling out any such arrangement, fearing it would scare the middle-class Brexit sceptic voters they are hoping to poach from the Tories. But, after an election, it is easy to imagine some informal understanding, in return for another referendum on EU membership. The SNP would surely name a second referendum on Scotland leaving the UK, perhaps conditional on nationalist parties winning a majority at the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections, as their price. McDonnell, clearly aware that a Labour Government could rely on SNP support, has been sounding increasingly open to this possibility. 

It’s a strange sensation, wondering if you’re watching the death of your country. Nations come and go of course. If their defenders become too weak, or too foolish, they can cease to exist. But it would greatly sadden me to see the United Kingdom fall apart as a political entity, joining the likes of Yugoslavia and the USSR in the history books. If nothing else, such an astonishing country – which has done so much to shape the modern world for good and ill – deserves a more noble end. 

There is no doubt that a no-deal Brexit will place the British union under strain, quite possibly to the point that initiates its collapse. A majority of the populations of both Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU, and this is being used as a wedge issue by those who want to take them out of the UK. In Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon initially overplayed her hand, by demanding another independence referendum in early 2017, contributing to the SNP’s losses at that year’s General Election. But a no-deal EU exit is clearly reviving her fortunes. A poll published by Lord Ashcroft last month found that, once the undecideds are excluded, support for Scotland leaving the UK stands at 52 per cent. With the departure of Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, in part it seems because of Brexit policy clashes with Boris Johnson, the Union has lost one of its most resolute defenders. 

In Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein are demanding a referendum on union with the Irish Republic, with the Dublin Government sounding increasingly open to the option. Such a poll would be brutal for all involved. Violence, on some level, would be virtually inevitable, while many of those on the losing side may refuse to honour the result. Northern Ireland remains a tinder box, a little over two decades since the end of the Troubles, and there are no shortage of people flicking matchsticks. 

We face the serious possibility of either a Jeremy Corbyn-led Government, the disintegration of the United Kingdom, or potentially both. That either could happen is bad enough. That it is policy decisions by Conservative Government, the theoretical defenders of the union and British capitalism, that have led us to this point is beyond tragic. Should the actions of self-described British patriots, the likes of Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage, end Britain as a political entity it will surely go down as one of the greatest self-owns in modern history. For their sake, as well as ours, I hope this sorry end can be avoided.