The Prorogation Crisis is a ploy to wind up Remainers
Anti-Brexit campaigners 29 August 2019 in London. (photo by Sam Mellish / In Pictures via Getty Images)
Just when you thought the Brexit rage could not get any more hyperbolic, we had this week. Boris Johnson asked the Queen to prorogue Parliament and make way for a Queen’s Speech. We know he this did to limit the amount of time MPs opposed to a no-deal Brexit, or indeed any Brexit, have to act. Never mind a domestic agenda, it was Brexit, of course, that was the Government’s real motivation.
But there was another reason for the move, I think. Downing Street, dominated by former staffers on the Leave Campaign, not least Dominic Cummings, wanted to wind up their political opponents. Send them into a frothing fervour of anger. To that end, they have succeeded.
The response from my fellow Remainers was as over the top as it was predictable, with talk of a coup taking place and civil disobedience in retaliation. Meanwhile, ministers could calmly point out that this had been a very long Parliamentary session and that because of party conference season, we were really only talking about a few days anyway. Parliament is going to be sitting in the days running up to the 31 October deadline, so what’s all the fuss about? This, of course, would provoke an even angrier response, making opponents look even more swivel-eyed.
It is classic fake-news from the Government, in that there is an element of truth to their case. This has been an exceptionally long parliamentary session. Yes, there would normally be a recess for party conferences. The thing is, this is obviously far from a normal year. MPs probably would not have voted for the Conference recess, if they had been asked. In its absence, they might actually have had another month or so in which to scrutinise or even stop the Government’s Brexit plans. They get no such say on prorogation for a Queen’s Speech. However, all that pointing this out achieves is adding a lot of noise, boring a public already thoroughly fed up with this whole terrible mess.
While I do not wish to contribute further to the “Dominic Cummings is an evil genius” meme that is currently floating around, he is using the same strategy deployed successfully by the referendum campaign that he ran.
As with many of the lines being used by the Government now, the £350 million a week for the NHS campaign point in 2016 was sort of true, but not really. £350 million is the amount the UK gives to the EU without the rebate. The reality is that, once our rebate is taken into account, the UK contributes significantly less than that, around £200 million net per week. Of course, if you pursued that argument all people heard is irate Remainers arguing to send lots of money to the EU, and Leavers saying large amounts of money should go to the NHS, even though they were not in any position to promise that at that time.
Consequently, the Remain campaign initially tried to ignore the number, or so I was told in an interview for my book. However, the whole row got too big, with the figure painted in huge letters on a side of a bus and beamed onto daily news bulletins. Eventually, they had to respond to it. Not only did this make the Remain side look argumentative and somewhat petty, it stopped them campaigning on the things they wanted to. They had been distracted. Wound-up. Gaslighted. Trolled.
And that’s happening again now. Remainers head to TV studios to complain about how awful the prorogation is, while the clock ticks down and the public just wants everybody to shut up.
Like that £350 million figure, the reality of this parliamentary suspension is somewhere in the middle of what both sides are saying. It is not a coup. A new Government laying out its agenda via a Queen’s Speech may be arcane, but it cannot be said to be anti-democratic. After all, MPs normally debate the Queen’s Speech every year. Furthermore, while Parliament probably would have sat for weeks, not days, longer without this suspension, there is little evidence it would be able to achieve in weeks what it has failed to achieve in three years – i.e. agree to a deal or stop Brexit (the only two ways to stop the legal default of no-deal).
That does not, though, mean the prorogation is OK. The Government has deliberately and knowingly limited the time in which MPs can debate and scrutinise Brexit plans, making an extreme option more likely. They have also politicised the Queen.
In the end though, the Leavers got what they wanted – a huge reaction from the Remainers. Their confrontational attitude means that they will probably also achieve their ultimate goal of leaving the EU, deal or no deal, on 31 October.
