Trump is losing to leading Democrats in the polls. Does it matter?

If you believe most head-to-head polls between President Trump and leading Democratic presidential candidates, the former’s 2020 re-election bid will end in defeat. Most US opinion polls, including NBC News/Wall Street Journal, ABC News/Washington Post and CNN, have had Trump consistently behind. A few exceptions include Fox News and Quinnipiac, which occasionally show Trump slightly ahead over lower-ranked candidates.

In the most recent (August 24-26) survey by Emerson College, Trump is losing to former Vice-President Joe Biden (54-46 per cent), Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (52-48), and is neck and neck with Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and California Senator Kamala Harris. Of the five profiled Democrats, the only one Trump is beating isthe least familiar: Pete Buttigieg, the Mayor of South Bend, Indiana. Even here, the President is only aheadby a 51-49 margin.

Biden is, without question, Trump’s biggest hurdle for 2020. Every major US polling firm has had him well ahead of the President. The aggregate used by Real Clear Politics currently lists Biden with a 9.5 per cent spread.

This information is interesting to political analysts and junkies alike. But does it really matter to the rest of us that Trump is losing head-to-head polls at this stage of the campaign? The answer is “no”.

History has shown that head-to-head polls are a meaningless statistic in the pre-election period (and occasionally beyond). It’s always better to be ahead than behind, but it really doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things.

Trump is the classic example. In 2015, he was behind most of his fellow Republican presidential candidates at the onset, including Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Ben Carson. In short order, he passed them all.

He was also behind the two leading Democratic presidential candidates, Sanders and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, during 2015 and large swaths of 2016. Who ended up winning the election? As Trump often likes to remind us, he did.

It doesn’t stop with The Donald. Other presidents were either behind (George W. Bush, Bill Clinton) or only slightly ahead (Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama) in head-to-head polls at this stage. The final results were completely different.

It’s not difficult to understand why this happens. Loyal Democrat and Republican supporters usually remain in their political camps. They’re mostly supportive of the new or incumbent presidential candidate, too. There’s obviously some movement, including the Never Trump contingent and Democrats opposed to Clinton in 2016. Generally speaking, though, they stay put.

The majority of American voters aren’t party members or strong political ideologues. Not until the pre-election period do they start thinking seriously about the best presidential candidate. Do they want the incumbent to serve out a full two presidential terms? Are they pleased with the direction of the Republicans, Democrats, or neither? Is the country in better shape now than it was four years ago?The answers often help shift the bulk of potential voters in one political direction or another.

It’s also important to keep in mind that a president or presidential candidate’s popular support doesn’t necessarily translate into victory or defeat. Winning the electoral college is the only thing that truly matters on election day. While most presidents win the popular vote and electoral college, it doesn’t always happen. George W. Bush lost the popular vote to Al Gore in 2000 by 543,895 votes, and Trump lost to Clinton in 2016 by a whopping 2,868,686 votes, but both won the all-important electoral college.

Here’s another crucial factor. Most Democratic presidential candidates start off with a huge lead in popular support. They often win California and New York, which are voter-rich and politically liberal. Republican support tends to be spread out in more US states, which is a huge help with respect to the electoral college.

Finally, the head-to-head polls haven’t factored in all of the issues that will likely dominate the 2020 presidential election.There’s no doubt the victorious Democratic presidential candidate will run against Trump’s political record, and audaciously claim thathe’s been the most polarisingUS president in history. That’s going to be the main issue, but Democrats are kidding themselves if they think that’s enough to win an election.

American voters will want to look at domestic issues like taxation, crime, safety, poverty, unemployment, business opportunities and job growth. America’s foreign policy will also be considered, including the war on terror and border security — and whether they want to be more internationally engaged or more nationally focused. These issues, and others, are where the political tide could potentially turn.

With the notable exception of Biden, most of the leading Democratic presidential candidates are strongly or radically left-wing in their ideas and policies. They want to increase the size of government, enhance public spending, and bring a nanny-state mentality to the table that would make even a liberal like Obama weep.

That’s where Trump has his biggest advantage. When more Americans finally learn about the political and economic views of his Democratic presidential rivals, the head-to-head polls may quickly start to swing in his general direction.