What do the George Floyd riots mean for American politics?
(Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
As if the United States of America were not already disunited enough, the George Floyd riots have deepened the divisions still more. As disorder reigns from coast to coast, with scores of cities imposing curfews, what is at stake is no longer race alone, but the rule of law itself.
Handling riots, like lockdowns, is primarily the responsibility, not of the Federal administration, but of the state governors. President Trump, however, has criticised gubernatorial failure to quell the violence and threatened to deploy the military. Much will turn on whether the public shares the President’s view that the state authorities have been “weak”, or whether it is he who is blamed for fanning the flames by conjuring the spectre of martial law.
Donald Trump himself has been damaged by the perception that, when rioters rampaged in his vicinity, his first instinct was to hide in a bunker. That is not what Americans expect from their Commander in Chief. But the escalating violence has given him a chance to show more mettle. Trump has already seized the opportunity to declare himself “your President of law and order”, with images of himself striding out of the White House to a nearby church that had earlier been set alight. By contrast, his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, only emerged on Monday for the first time in months to meet protest leaders in Delaware, where he has been isolating. While Biden’s proposals to improve police training may be sensible, they are scarcely the priority for citizens worried about their lives and property.
The contrast, then, is already clear. Vote Trump if you fear for your safety, support the police and favour a crackdown. Vote Biden if you sympathise with protestors, suspect the police and favour dialogue. This is a contest that Trump could win, even though Biden is ahead in the polls. Disgusted as they are by the killing of George Floyd, people are shaken by the fires and looting. The rights and wrongs of the riots will soon fade, but memories of the mayhem will remain. If Trump’s image is too harsh, Biden’s is too soft.
Meanwhile, chaos on the streets in the midst of the coronavirus crisis may spread the pandemic further in the very communities that have already suffered most. Covid-19 has already killed more than 100,000 Americans, many of them people of colour. The death toll from the virus dwarfs the few hundred who die annually at the hands of the police. For this reason alone, the imperative is now to restore order on the streets.
Abroad, images of a great country in chaos have evoked solidarity from friends, schadenfreude from enemies. Chinese media have indulged in an orgy of gloating over America’s troubles, mocking Trump for “hiding” for a few hours when rioters came close to storming the White House. (Xi Jinping vanished for several days at the height of China’s coronavirus outbreak in February.) Beijing must know that such tactics are likely to goad the President into doubling down on his strategy of blaming China for the pandemic and rallying support for a new Cold War.
Despite the lockdown, the campaign season was already under way when it was galvanised by the riots. Fears of more violence may persuade the parties to hold virtual conventions. The Democrats, in particular, are haunted by memories of the Chicago convention in 1968, which took place amid violent Vietnam War protests and was followed by their defeat at the hands of Richard Nixon, the most divisive President until the advent of Trump. This year the Democratic convention is due to take place in Milwaukee late in August. Biden badly needs a relaunch of his campaign, but his physical frailty renders him vulnerable. Trump, too, draws his energy from working crowds; deprived of his rallies, he may struggle to cut through.
In this unprecedented predicament, the unexpected is inevitable. Alarming events are transforming American politics by the day; all predictions are hazardous. Contemplating the unfolding drama, however, and invited to examine both candidates for November’s presidential election, the average citizen is likely to respond: none of the above.
