Whatever MPs are saying now, we might well be heading for a leadership election. So, who next?

After weeks and weeks of speculation, the 48 letters are finally in. At 8am this morning, Sir Graham Brady announced that a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister will take place between 6pm and 8pm tonight, with the result revealed immediately afterwards. As I write, MPs are queuing up to voice their support for the Prime Minister, but the ballot is secret, and as the whips know only too well, a public endorsement of Theresa May is no guarantee of a vote.

So, if it all goes wrong for the Prime Minister tonight, who will take up the mantle?

Jeremy Hunt

With eight years of Cabinet experience behind him, Jeremy Hunt is technically one of the most qualified candidates for the job. Lots of Conservatives think he did rather well at Health – surely the hardest brief – and he is definitely making his mark as Foreign Secretary. Just weeks ago, he managed to secure the swift release of British academic Matthew Hedges, something many believe his predecessor couldn’t have achieved. His talent for languages has also won him some admirers among those who believe we need a Prime Minister who will cut an impressive figure on the world stage.

He campaigned for Remain in the referendum, but that may not prove a problem among the Brexiteer faithful, because he’s been entirely convincing and consistent in his support for delivering Brexit ever since.

In fact, the most serious issue with Hunt is that it’s not at all clear what his Brexit plan would be. The New Statesman, along with a few other outlets, is suggesting he would stand on a ‘managed no deal’ platform, but The Telegraph thinks he would try for concessions on May’s deal, and, failing that, back some sort of soft Brexit/Norway option.

If he’s to win over the support of members, he’ll have to be completely clear where he stands.

Boris Johnson 

After years of waiting in the wings, it’s clear (from his Prime Ministerial new haircut, apart from anything else) that Boris believes his moment has come. And he could well be right. His robustly articulated patriotism and shaggy dog charm always go down well with the middle aged, middle England Brexiteers who make up the vast majority of Conservative Party members (there’s always a frisson of excitement when he comes on stage at Party Conference) – and since restarting his Telegraph column, he’s crystallised that support.

The question is, can he make it to the final two? A lot of Tory MPs think he was a blustering and ineffective Foreign Secretary and are completely fed up with his posturing. It also doesn’t help his case that Dominic Grieve and around 20 other arch Remainers have indicated they will resign the whip if he becomes Prime Minister.

On the other hand, ERG types are aware that Boris is the only one of their number with really good name recognition – helpful if it comes to a general election – and he does seem to have the firmest plan of any of the possible candidates for getting out of the current Brexit rut. Namely, withhold half the £39 billion May has promised to the EU until Barnier et al reopen the Withdrawal Agreement and make some legally binding concessions.

Bizarrely, given his divisive personality, Boris could end up being the compromise candidate. Although he would certainly threaten the EU with no deal more forcefully than Theresa May has done, he wouldn’t actually stand on a platform of implementing no deal, which may persuade a few scared Remainers into backing him.

And don’t forget, he has a secret weapon. As Daniel Johnson reported on Monday, Lynton Crosby has a lot of time for Boris, and has already been working with him behind the scenes.

Dominic Raab 

The main problem with Dominic Raab is that he’s almost an entirely unknown quantity. His tenure as Brexit Secretary lasted only four months, and as Theresa May was freezing him out by conducting most of the negotiations herself throughout that time, it wasn’t particularly helpful political experience.

On the other hand, as his speech at Party Conference proved, he’s an excellent speaker with a compelling back story – and there’s definitely something of the statesman about him. What’s more, he’s managed to come out of the last, terrible, year looking really rather good. He showed loyalty to the Prime Minister in her darkest hour by taking up the mantle of Brexit Secretary when Davis stepped down, but then had the courage to stick to his principles and resign when it became evident that she wasn’t going to let him do his job.

Interestingly, hardened old school Eurosceptic Bill Cash indicated on the BBC this morning that he would back Raab. He may well bring others with him.

David Davis

The ex-Brexit Secretary certainly commands a lot of support among party members. He was the first to resign over Chequers, which earned him respect, and he has been clear from the start about the sort of deal (Canada-style) he’s after.

His age, as Daniel Johnson wrote in this morning’s leader, is also in his favour. Ambitious young Cabinet ministers may well be more willing to support a caretaker Prime Minister who would probably wish to retire before the next election over a young rival who would likely stick around well into the next decade.

Davis himself has always maintained that he doesn’t want to be Prime Minister, which must obviously be taken with a pinch of salt, but if he is indeed reluctant to be the front man, he may well run on a card with Boris Johnson – who certainly has no such qualms.

Penny Mordaunt

A few months ago, you could hardly move around Westminster for political pundits excitedly talking about future Prime Minister, Penny Mordaunt (I exaggerate, but you get the point). A feisty, straight-talking, female Brexiteer with a gay, body-building brother, she seemed to tick all the boxes. But since failing to resign from May’s cabinet after a Withdrawal deal she clearly didn’t support was mooted, she’s lost the trust of a lot of Brexiteers. She tied herself to May, and will now go down with the ship.

Amber Rudd

Amber Rudd has come back to the Cabinet reinvigorated after a short spell in the wilderness. She’s a good speaker, has proven her loyalty to the Prime Minister (and whatever it looks like now, Conservative MPs value loyalty), and would want to stand on a soft Brexit platform – the one option which may command the support of a majority of the House.

But if Conservative Brexiteers aren’t happy with May, they’re unlikely to go for May-lite, as many view Rudd. What’s more, her tiny minority will seriously count against her. If we’re heading for a General Election, a Prime Minister with a majority of 346 is the last thing the Conservatives need.

Michael Gove 

One of the most effective ministers under David Cameron, Gove has long been touted as a possible Prime Minister. He’s a convincing public speaker, a conviction politician, and a true Brexiteer – which all count in his favour.

The problem is, he just isn’t trusted. He may well have been quite right to withdraw his support for Boris in the last leadership election (Boris didn’t exactly shower himself in glory in high office subsequently), but once you’ve been called a backstabber, it’s hard to clear your name. Plus, to teachers he’s still the devil incarnate – and a lot of parents listen to their children’s teachers.

It seems unlikely that he could make it to the top job, but he may well be a kingmaker.

Sajid Javid

A Eurosceptic who reluctantly voted Remain, Sajid Javid has support on both sides of the Conservative Party. He has already shown himself to be a formidable Home Secretary, and is admired for sticking to his convictions: he was one of the first cabinet ministers who spoke out against May’s draconian immigration policies.

He’s also a free-marketeer and calls himself a Thatcherite, which will go down well with the party members.

On the other hand, he’s a truly terrible public speaker, and, like Hunt, it’s not at all clear what his plan would be for getting us out of our current predicament.

Esther McVey

McVey has said she would consider running if asked. But it doesn’t sound like anyone has. So that’s that.